Quote:
Originally Posted by Kraftwerk
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The reality of the situation is that China is heading for a hard landing as their growth is slowing.
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Even with a US-induced slowdown, China will still average a 5% economic increase annually.
The central date for China's GDP to overtake the US at market exchange rates is 2019 - a study of growth assumptions and analyses.
The real estate bubble problem is interesting; China should overcome it without breaking a sweat. The strongest opposition argument is:
Regarding China’s urban population, the report forecasts that between 2011 and 2020 it will ‘increase by 26.1% or over 160 million people, while urban per head disposable incomes will increase by 2.6-fold to 51,310 RMB (about US$7,500 at current exchange rates).
Oh...answering the original point.
The US as we know it will cease to exist in less than 20 years. We'll probably become a collection of city-states.