Blade of Carnage drop on beta

[koros]

I'm getting annoyed with this completely arbitrary analysis on both sides of the argument, so let's do some math with a log that was posted from early 2002. Shortened to only include AoW swings. It never flurries, so it was almost certainly crippled by this point in the fight. I separated what seems like "swing" rounds, this almost perfectly works between seconds. Only once did I group swings from one second with another, and that was because at :49 it only swung twice, and at :50 it swung once, and then again three times at :51. Instead of getting 3 shitty rounds in a super small period I assume it was a server timing issue as :49 rolled to :50 so I grouped that together.

Posting this now and doing a bit more in depth analysis when I get time.

29 misses, 67 hits from swings. We can pretty safely assume around a 70% hit rate.

19:50:22 to 19:51:09 = 47 seconds, and 96 swings = 2.04 swings per second

Most swings in any one second: 5
Most damage in any one round: 2439
Number of attack rounds: 28
Average number of swings per round: 3.4
Estimated delay from this: Almost exactly 1.5

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:21 2002, Rexxor assumes a defensive fighting style.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:22 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but misses!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:22 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOUR magical skin absorbs the blow!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:22 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU riposte!"

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:22 2002, The*Avatar*of War bashes YOU for 236 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:23 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU parry!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:23 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 614 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:23 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:25 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 614 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:25 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:27 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but misses!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:27 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU dodge!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:27 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:29 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but misses!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:29 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 389 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:29 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 276 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:29 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU parry!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:29 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU dodge!"

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:30 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to bash YOU, but misses!"

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:30 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU riposte!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:30 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:32 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 276 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:32 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but misses!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:32 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but misses!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:32 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:32 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:34 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU parry!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:34 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 344 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:34 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but misses!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:34 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 681 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:36 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:36 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 591 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:37 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 524 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:37 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:37 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 434 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:37 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 659 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:38 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to bash YOU, but misses!"

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:39 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 636 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:39 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU parry!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:39 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:41 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 591 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:41 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU riposte!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:41 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:41 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 546 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:42 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but misses!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:42 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:42 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but misses!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:42 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 501 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:42 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:44 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 276 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:44 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU dodge!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:44 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:44 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 276 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:44 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 659 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:46 2002, The*Avatar*of War bashes YOU for 259 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:46 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 389 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:46 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 659 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:46 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:48 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU dodge!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:48 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU riposte!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:48 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:49 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 276 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:49 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU parry!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:50 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 321 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:51 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:51 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 299 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:51 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU parry!"

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:53 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:53 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU riposte!"

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:54 2002, The*Avatar*of War kicks YOU for 255 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:55 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 4 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:55 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but misses!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:55 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 434 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:57 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:57 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:57 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but misses!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:57 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:58 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:58 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 434 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:58 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but YOU riposte!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:58 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 366 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:51:00 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 524 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:00 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 434 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:00 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 456 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:51:02 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:02 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 321 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:02 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 299 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:51:02 2002, The*Avatar*of War bashes YOU for 259 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:51:04 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 569 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:04 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 276 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:04 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 276 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:04 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 614 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:04 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:51:05 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:05 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but misses!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:05 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 546 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:05 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 591 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:51:08 2002," The*Avatar*of War tries to slash YOU, but misses!"
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:08 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 501 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:08 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 614 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:51:09 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 411 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:09 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 366 points of damage.
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:09 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 636 points of damage.

[Mon Mar 18 19:51:09 2002, You have been slain by The*Avatar*of War!
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:11 2002," Returning to home point, please wait..."
[Mon Mar 18 19:51:12 2002," LOADING, PLEASE WAIT..."

[koros]

You'll notice there's a hit for 4. It's from rune. I'll try to remove any hits that aren't possible without a rune when I do a median/mean DI analysis.

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:55 2002, The shimmer of runes fades.
[Mon Mar 18 19:50:55 2002, The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 4 points of damage.

So for all the hits, I parsed out just the number. Then I subtracted 254 and divided by 45. If the result wasn't a whole number 1-10 I threw it out. This left 43 hits, 24 of which were DI 10, 3 of which were DI 9, 4 of which were DI 8.

~56% of the time was max
~72% of the time was 8-10 on the DI.

Pretty high hits... but I hope you see where I'm going with this. The odds of a max round ever are almost 0. I'm just going to run the numbers for 5 hits, since that's all I saw, getting 8 max would be even more rare.

Chance of a max hit(.56^5) * Chance of hitting (.7^5)* Chance of a 5 swings (max in the log I had) round(.17)=0.0015% chance of max round per swing

If we raise those powers to the 7th or 8th power, it gets stupidly small. I rest my fucking case.

[Littlegyno 13.0]

Originally Posted by Raev [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

As long as you admit you don't have any mathematical basis for your opinion, I'm fine with it [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Gyno referring to himself of course.

u got a problem?

[Treats]

Originally Posted by koros [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Stuff

Faz you were tanking him in that shiny new Cobalt Breastplate amirite?!

[koros]

Originally Posted by Treats [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Faz you were tanking him in that shiny new Cobalt Breastplate amirite?!

I'm sure the 14 ac difference between that and warlords is going to drastically shift the distrubution curve. Way to dismiss my thorough analysis with bullshit. You're smarter than that. This is about figuring out how strong the thing actually was. What exactly do you take issue with?

[Raev]

His AC is completely comparable as you should know. 289 raw item ac is actually obtainable in Kunark, although its a bit tricky.

Originally Posted by Logs

[Mon Mar 18 19:50:23 2002], The*Avatar*of War slashes YOU for 704 points of damage.

Originally Posted by Kavhok

Let me give a more full explanation of what happened, though. Here's how the AC formula used to work before the patch immediately preceding PoP:

The AC from your items was added up, but the value used for it was hard capped based on your level. This was the same for all classes. Once you had 289 raw AC from items (or 385 as a cloth class, since they get less effect from item AC), that was it. More AC from items wouldn't do anything.

Originally Posted by Wikipedia

Planes of Power Release date: October 29, 2002

Just stop posting, Treats.

[Treats]

Yeah, this is pointless.

Grats, ya'll win.

Farm all the Velious pixels to your hearts content.

[Treats]

Been thinking about this a bit more.

Faz said the flurries were omitted from the log he posted Koros.

It never flurries, so it was almost certainly crippled by this point in the fight.

Even if he could have been crippled it would have had no affect on his Flurry rate since this is based off of NPC CHA.

Anyways, on Torven's sheet it shows AoW to have a Flurry Rate of 5%, so it should be between 20-25% chance to flurry each round.

Koros in your calculations is there a reason you omitted Ripostes and Bash/Kick? NPC's reset their Bash/Kick timer each time they Flurry (and Rampage I think) so he is guaranteed two chances in a Flurry round. 254 is max bash damage I think? Or 254 + x?

I use Faz log and come up with this for total damage possible

Max
704 x 8
254 x 2
704 x 1
6844 Total

DI 8-10 (50%)
704 x 4
614 x 4
254 x 2
614 x 1
6394 Total

4 Normal/4 Flurry/2 Bash/1 Riposte

Using the number you came up with (0.0015%) it would happen 1.5 times in a 25 minute fight

[koros]

Originally Posted by Treats [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Been thinking about this a bit more.

Faz said the flurries were omitted from the log he posted Koros.



Even if he could have been crippled it would have had no affect on his Flurry rate since this is based off of NPC CHA.

Anyways, on Torven's sheet it shows AoW to have a Flurry Rate of 5%, so it should be between 20-25% chance to flurry each round.

Koros in your calculations is there a reason you omitted Ripostes and Bash/Kick? NPC's reset their Bash/Kick timer each time they Flurry (and Rampage I think) so he is guaranteed two chances in a Flurry round. 254 is max bash damage I think? Or 254 + x?

I use Faz log and come up with this for total damage possible

Max
704 x 8
254 x 2
704 x 1
6844 Total

DI 8-10 (50%)
704 x 4
614 x 4
254 x 2
614 x 1
6394 Total

4 Normal/4 Flurry/2 Bash/1 Riposte

Using the number you came up with (0.0015%) it would happen 1.5 times in a 25 minute fight

I forgot flurry was based on cha. Back in Velious I never knew that and we were under the impression it was Dex, so we made cripple a priority. Was rampage based on Dex? I omitted bash/kick and riposte to not muddle his normal damage from melee rounds, since while those are largish hits, they aren't the majority of his damage, I wanted to get an estimate on average hit, average number of hits, and variance. I'm sure Faz had avoidance and mitigation AA in the log also, I was just looking to get a baseline.

My main argument was that execution is more important than gear in this case. He should be very hard, basically always, but a perfect chain can overcome it, Since he's not going to one round a tank, on average, more than once once every couple minutes. BiS Velious gear might change it from once every 3 min to once every 5 min... I'm on vacation atm, but I'll write more when I get home.

[Raev]

I think Koros did his math on 5x max hits, not 8, so the percentage should be even lower.

Anyway, I think the real point with the Avatar of War is that he has no AE, so you can zerg him. If you want more DPS on a NTOV Dragon, you have to bring more Rogues *and* the shamans/resist gear/clickies/etc to keep them alive. Here you just have people log on their naked-except-for-ragebringer rogue alts.

Also welcome back to real discussion, Treats (no sarcasm)