Miscellaneous: Failure rate on trivial combinations

[zahlia]

I know that the RNG is a fickle creature, and that of course our failures tend to stand out to us more than our successes. That being said, I do more than 100 tradeskill combinations every week, and until this week I have probably failed to combine about 1 or 2 of every 100 trivial combinations. In the past 2 days, I have failed 3 of my 7 most recent trivial combinations (and 1 of the 8 most recent non trivial).

I am absolutely, 100% willing to accept that this is just a short burst of bad luck, but I thought I'd post to see if any of the other mad tradeskillers have noticed anything off this week.

[dali_lb]

noticed the same. looks like they've been playing with failure rate to make it a bit more classic

[laeolan]

I have noticed more trivial failures since the recipe menu was removed, but have been writing it off as my imagination. Tonight I failed 4 trivial smithing combines in a row, and I thought I would post just in case there really is a bug.

A friend wanted some fine plate armor, and I told him I would only charge materials cost. He wanted five pieces made, almost all trivial. In the past I have had good successes with smithing. I fail seldom, compared to similar skill level and trivials for tailoring or jewel crafting combines. I have only failed maybe half a dozen of 150+ combines of fine plate, around 5%, and most of those were even before they became trivial. I make all the sheet metal first, so the combines for the armor were done close together (so it could be RNG bad luck). I did the combines in this order:

My Smithing Skill: 175
Small Fine Plate Shoulder - Fail - trivial combine (168)
Small Fine Plate Visor - Fail - trivial combine (163)
Small Fine Splinted Cloak - Fail - trivial combine (175)
Small Fine Plate Greaves - Fail - non trivial combine (179)
Small Fine Plate Gauntlets - Success - trivial combine (175)
(pause to make more sheet metal)
Small Fine Plate Shoulder - Success - trivial combine (168)
Small Fine Plate Visor - Success - trivial combine (163)
(pause again for more sheet metal)
Small Fine Plate Greaves - Fail - non trivial combine (179)
Small Fine Plate Greaves - Success - non trivial combine (179)

My estimated cost was 375p for 5 pieces (50AC) but I spent 511p for 4 pieces (40AC). Like I said this was for a friend, so I took the hit myself. But even if this had been for the normal 10p per AC I would have taken a 100p+ loss on it. To be clear I WAS getting trivial failures in the past, just not so many and more in line with the 5% rule.

[Omnimorph]

Not sure what the % should be, but i was always told that it's a 5% failure rate on trivial combines.

I definitely don't think it was this when i was levelling up my JC.

[PearlJammzz]

There is a calculator for it around here somewhere...

http://www.eqtraders.com/calculators/main.php

[PearlJammzz]

Also this is a good time to check and make sure things like make poison can go off dex, blacksmithing strength, etc.

[maultar]

Yes I failed at 3 pieces of banded when normally I don't fail any. I would expect 1 if any not 3.

[guineapig]

Originally Posted by PearlJammzz [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Also this is a good time to check and make sure things like make poison can go off dex, blacksmithing strength, etc.

This is a very good point. These tradeskills are supposed to be effected by certain player stats with int/wis only effecting how likely you are to get a skill up.

[PearlJammzz]

No, ALL skills go off of wis/int, but some can go off str, dex, etc. if they happen to be higher. Make Poison, and Blacksmithing are two of these. I can pull up a full list/sources if this is going to get a serious look at by devs.

[guineapig]

My bad...

Anyway, this calculator should help you see just how often you should be failing combines:

http://www.eqtraders.com/calculators/main.php

Just leave the part about AA's and modifiers at 0.