Iksar Shaman - Solo Challenges?

[bcbrown]

Originally Posted by DeathsSilkyMist [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Yes, they do. Hit/Miss chance is a coin flip, for example. If the mob has 20 swings per fight, you would do a binomial distribution of 20 coin flips to determine damage done to the player.

Hit/miss is bernoulli/binomial, but the damage itself is a multivariate distribution, as there's a separate calculation of actual damage upon a hit. I've been told that this calculation draws from a uniform set of 20 discrete numbers.

Originally Posted by 7thGate [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

For DD procs, you can just do a straight average of PPM * damage per proc to get expected damage per minute, because the timing doesn't change it at all. This is because with each success valued the same regardless of sequencing, the mean of a binomial distribution is just the probability of success * number of swings, and the PPM system sets the probability of success such that this always comes out to the number of PPM.

This is not the case with a DOT proc because every proc is not equally valuable, you have to calculate the contribution each branch makes to the average individually and sum them to get the correct average. BCBrown is correct in his analysis. I have no idea why you're just averaging the timing and assuming that's correct when there's a nonlinear impact from the different samples in the distribution.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Hit/miss is bernoulli/binomial

There you go!

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Of course miss rate and proc rate both work the same. They're both a property of an individual swing. Why can't you answer this question? Do you understand the words I am using?

You also agree that Hit/Miss and Proc Rate are the same.

Literally the only difference between the two is the percentage. Hit/Miss is 50%, Proc rate is 10.4% in our example.

I am using a Normal Distribution for damage on all variables. You are trying to change the proc damage to a binomial distribution specifically, while leaving all of the other damages as Normal Distributions.

[bcbrown]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

the damage itself is a multivariate distribution, as there's a separate calculation of actual damage upon a hit. I've been told that this calculation draws from a uniform set of 20 discrete numbers.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I've been told that this calculation draws from a uniform set of 20 discrete numbers.

Indeed! In the case of Ionat:

[44, 54, 64, 74, 84, 94, 104, 115, 125, 135, 145, 155, 165, 176, 186, 196, 206, 216, 226, 237]

In the case of Scourge:

[40, 64, 88, 112, 136, 160, 184, 208, 232, 256, 280, 304, 328, 352, 376, 400, 424, 448, 472, 496, 520, 544]

Both calculations use a percent chance for success, and both calculations use a uniform set of discreet numbers.

[bcbrown]

It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

Thanks for admitting defeat. I am glad to see you realized your mistake, and agreed with me. Please don't be a sore loser.

To summarize:

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Hit/miss is bernoulli/binomial

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Of course miss rate and proc rate both work the same. They're both a property of an individual swing. Why can't you answer this question? Do you understand the words I am using?

Hit/Miss Chance = 50%, Proc Chance = 10.4% in our specific JBB example of 1.3PPM and 7.5/12.5 swings. The only difference between the two is the specific percentage.

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

but the damage itself is a multivariate distribution, as there's a separate calculation of actual damage upon a hit. I've been told that this calculation draws from a uniform set of 20 discrete numbers.

Ionat:

[44, 54, 64, 74, 84, 94, 104, 115, 125, 135, 145, 155, 165, 176, 186, 196, 206, 216, 226, 237]

Scourge:

[40, 64, 88, 112, 136, 160, 184, 208, 232, 256, 280, 304, 328, 352, 376, 400, 424, 448, 472, 496, 520, 544]

Both calculations use a percent chance for success, and both calculations use a uniform set of discreet numbers.

Procing once per minute using a DoT is basically equivalent to hitting with your weapon 1 time per minute, and selecting a damage value from the discreet number set. Instead of simply selecting a random value, the number picked from the DoT's discreet number set is based on the time you procced the dot vs. the expected time remaining in the encounter. If the DoT procs again, you simply select the DD value of the DoT instead.

[Jimjam]

I’m really glad you guys are having this discussion as I’ve been trying to relearn basic statistics recently and it has been very helpful to have so many examples using eq to help get my head around how things do / do not work.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by Jimjam [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I’m really glad you guys are having this discussion as I’ve been trying to relearn basic statistics recently and it has been very helpful to have so many examples using eq to help get my head around how things do / do not work.

Glad we can help!

[Duik]

So it can end now?
With one person who thinks he won because everyone else gave up?
That is the adult way to determine a winner.
Like scissors, rock, paper, lizard spock.
My only regret is that we didnt hit 100.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by Duik [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

So it can end now?
With one person who thinks he won because everyone else gave up?
That is the adult way to determine a winner.
Like scissors, rock, paper, lizard spock.
My only regret is that we didnt hit 100.

I did win the debate. Bcbrown was incorrectly assuming:

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

None of those other calculations use binomial distributions.

while simultaneously agreeing:

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Of course miss rate and proc rate both work the same.

He cannot say the miss rate is binomial and not binomial simultaneously.

This confusion is why he thought he could change the proc DPS from a Normal Distribution to a Binomial Distribution, while leaving the other DPS values as Normal Distributions.

I've been telling him this for 20+ pages now.