PSA: Reasonable probability that charm has been nerfed

[Splorf22]

New: Loraen (230 cha on average) vs L50 average mobs: 128 seconds +/- 22s
Old: Loraen (225 cha on average) vs L53 Ilis in Sebilis: 127 seconds +/- 28s

If I am doing my math correctly (never guaranteed!) the average charm on a L50 mob is now probably just over 2 minutes, unlikely (15%) to be over 2:30, and extremely unlikely (<1%) to be 3 minutes, which would be my estimate before the patch. It appears you can now charm L50 mobs with approximately the same duration as L53 mobs prepatch. I used a really simple procedure that somehow I went through graduate school without learning called bootstrapping to determine the variance.

caveat: These are just from my normal play so there are two that I broke early with the goblin ring. That probably skews the duration down slightly, but there is no good way to remove them from the set. On the other hand the fact that I only broke two out of almost 20 speaks for itself.

[Mon Jul 15 18:07:35 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:08:04 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 29s - 6 = 23s
[Mon Jul 15 18:08:23 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:15:17 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 6:54 - 6 = 406s
[Mon Jul 15 18:16:19 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:22:12 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 5:53 - 6 = 347s
[Mon Jul 15 18:22:37 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:25:08 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 2:31+ - 6 = 145s
[Mon Jul 15 18:37:42 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:38:03 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. :21 - 6 = 15s
[Mon Jul 15 18:38:20 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:40:33 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 2:13 - 6 = 127s
[Mon Jul 15 18:54:41 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:56:33 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 1:52 - 6 = 106s
[Mon Jul 15 18:56:57 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:58:03 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 1:06 - 6 = 60s
[Mon Jul 15 18:58:14 2013] You begin casting Alluring Whispers.
[Mon Jul 15 18:59:57 2013] Your Alluring Whispers spell has worn off. 1:43 - 16 = 87s
[Mon Jul 15 19:00:20 2013] You begin casting Alluring Whispers.
[Mon Jul 15 19:01:03 2013] Your Alluring Whispers spell has worn off. :43 - 16 = 27s
[Mon Jul 15 19:01:13 2013] You begin casting Alluring Whispers.
[Mon Jul 15 19:02:15 2013] Your Alluring Whispers spell has worn off. 1:02 - 16 = 44s
[Mon Jul 15 19:03:05 2013] You begin casting Alluring Whispers.
[Mon Jul 15 19:07:28 2013] Your Alluring Whispers spell has worn off. 4:23 - 16 = 247s
[Tue Jul 16 10:38:38 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Tue Jul 16 10:44:08 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 5:30+ - 6 = 324s
[Tue Jul 16 10:53:25 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Tue Jul 16 10:55:38 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 2:13 - 6 = 127s
[Tue Jul 16 10:55:56 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Tue Jul 16 10:56:45 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. :49 - 6 = 43s
[Tue Jul 16 10:57:20 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Tue Jul 16 10:58:33 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 1:13 - 6 = 67s
[Tue Jul 16 10:58:52 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Tue Jul 16 10:59:51 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. :59 - 6 = 53s
[Tue Jul 16 11:00:11 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Tue Jul 16 11:00:57 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. :46 - 6 = 40s

Old Data: http://www.project1999.org/forums/sh...ad.php?t=92423

[SamwiseRed]

most powerful class needs a nerf.

[koros]

Last night in Mistmoore, on my 28 enc, I soloed the last half of the level using the same mobs I had used to previously solo the first part. Charm seemed no different (better if anything)

[koros]

Also your math looks way off in a few areas - 4 of your samples were well over 3 minutes, with 1 (the 2:31 where you broke charm) having the potential to be. Where did the <1% chance for 3 min charm duration come from? Assuming a normal distribution of charm durations (which I doubt from this, although the sample size is small) the standard deviation would have to be huge.

[Swish]

Kudos to the OP for gathering the info... I guess time will tell on how it feels for everyone. All the enchanters will adjust regardless, just get to 60 and its all easier [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[Splorf22]

Originally Posted by koros [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Last night in Mistmoore, on my 28 enc, I soloed the last half of the level using the same mobs I had used to previously solo the first part. Charm seemed no different (better if anything)

I think its extremely hard for the human brain to measure small differences in the average value of highly random processes. How about you check your logs and post? This goes for you too Writ3r.

Also your math looks way off in a few areas - 4 of your samples were well over 3 minutes, with 1 (the 2:31 where you broke charm) having the potential to be. Where did the <1% chance for 3 min charm duration come from? Assuming a normal distribution of charm durations (which I doubt from this, although the sample size is small) the standard deviation would have to be huge.

I said the average has a 1% chance to be over 3 minutes, not an individual charm. I resampled the data many times to create a distribution for the mean, which should be more or less gaussian even though the distribution for an individual charm is not.

[koros]

Misread that part.

However, I still think that 1. The sample size is likely too small, especially for a bootstrapping method, and 2. It's entirely possible (and looks likely) that the distribution is bimodal, or something else entirely. Perhaps MR in seb even got jacked up.

Regarding my experience charming in MM, due to my limited mana regen and the fact that I charm soloed for 3 hours, significant differences in mean charm duration should have made me unable to keep the entire area clear as consistently as I did, mana was tight last time I did this.

I'll do some analysis when I get home from work.

[Barkingturtle]

I suspect J-Boots are about 3% slower, too.

[Swish]

WTS Tinfoil hat with "tashan" effect built in.

[Splorf22]

Originally Posted by koros [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Misread that part.

However, I still think that 1. The sample size is likely too small, especially for a bootstrapping method, and 2. It's entirely possible (and looks likely) that the distribution is bimodal, or something else entirely. Perhaps MR in seb even got jacked up.

Regarding my experience charming in MM, due to my limited mana regen and the fact that I charm soloed for 3 hours, significant differences in mean charm duration should have made me unable to keep the entire area clear as consistently as I did, mana was tight last time I did this.

I'll do some analysis when I get home from work.

If my analysis is correct, there is a ~10% probability that I was just unlucky with my tests. It's certainly not impossible, so I titled the thread 'reasonable probability'.

Also the biggest issue with MM is probably that L20 mobs will kill each other pretty fast, so you probably never need long charms when soloing. It's at 50+ when mobs HP starts going crazy that you have more breaks.

Originally Posted by Barkingturtle

I suspect J-Boots are about 3% slower, too.

That's probably because you don't know how to use estimators and confidence intervals to actually measure things. Of course, if you did your ego might not be so starved for attention that you have to troll the boards all day.