Problem with tailoring skill ups

[RosstheBoss]

First, it was 46 black panther skins without 1 skill up.

Then, it was 94 othmir furs without 1 skill up.

My guess would be that this is being manipulated or is broken. I successfully made 11 othmir fur caps, 0 trade-skill ups. That's thousands of pp wasted, and countless hours of farming. I'm not trying to complain here, I'm trying to get feedback, anyone else getting totally screwed?

Spent 40k and over a week of solid farming for 10 skill points? At this rate, no I don't have 3-6 months and hundreds of thousands of pp just to get to a reasonable skill level.

Feel free to tell me I'm wrong, if you have experience. Are there times of the day that a skill up is not possible? Am I being targeted? One begins to wonder after wasting a full week of his life for zero reward.

[Thulack]

Its called a RNG for a reason. I know at one point i went over 200 combines without a skillup on live.

[Tupakk]

Were you 255 buffed the whole time. That does make a difference at the higher end. It took us as a guild about a month to get our tailor to max. Just have to stick with it.

[TheFaceless]

EQ tradeskills suck for this very reason. I'd rather have harder to find mats with a better chance to skill up, then clicking a million combines.

[chaser95]

lol this is why none of my char's will have 7th shawl's i cant stand tradeskills =/

[Handull]

If you're after a shawl, just go for the combine. You'll probably get 2-4 fails, but it'll be easier than all that tradeskilling. Or be like me and get it without failing once at 162 tailoring (okay okay, I failed once of the 5x no drop silk combines).

[Daldaen]

So, the tradeskill skill up calculation pre-2005 does 2 checks to see if you get a skill up. Both checks must be successful for you to get that skill up.

The 1st skill up check is based on your innate stat, the difficulty of the tradeskill, and whether you succeeded or not. The calculation is:

( BASE STAT - SPECIAL TS MOD ) / ( TS DIFFICULTY * FAILURE CHECK )

Base Stat is your WIS/INT or STR/DEX for Blacksmithing/Fletching respectively.
Special TS mod is equal to 0 for Smithing, Fletching and Poisonmaking. Every other TS it is equal to 15.
TS Difficulty is equal to a value between 2-4, Tailoring and Smithing are 2's, Baking and Brewing are 3's, Pottery, Fletching, and JC are 4's
Failure Value is equal to 1 if a success 2 if a failed combine.

This value gives a number, and a roll of 1-100 is performed, if your rolled number is less than the number you have, you pass this check and go to the next check. If your rolled number is greater than the number calculated above the check stops there and you don't get a skill up.

The 2nd skill up check is based on skill. If your TS skill is over 190, then the chance to skill up is a flat 5%. If your TS skill is under 190, then it is (200-SKILL)/2.

SO, an example case. If you are doing Tailoring with 255 INT, at skill of 190:

(255 - 15) / (2*1) = 230/2 = 115. This value exceeds 100, so you will pass the 1st check every time when you succeed the combine. The second check for skill of 190, is a flat 5% chance to skill up so on successful combines you have a 5% chance to succeed.

(255 - 15) / (2*2) = 230/4 = 57.5. This value means on 57% of your failed combines you will pass the first check. The second check for skill of 190, is a flat 5% chance to skill up, but you will only get this far 57% of the time. So the calculation is 0.57*0.05 = 2.875% chance to skill up on a failed combine.

Using your above examples:

94 Othmir Furs, with 11 success and 83 failures

11 * 0.05 = 0.55
83 * 0.02875 = 2.38625

Out of that many you were expected to get just under 3 skill ups.

How unlikely is it that you got 0 skill ups?

(0.95)^11 = 56.88% chance to not get any skill ups out of your 11 Successes
(0.97125)^83 = 8.88% chance to not get any skill ups out of your 83 Fails

Yea you just had bad luck :/. This again assumes you're at a Tailoring skill at or over 190, and it assumes you had INT or WIS at 255. If you had a lower INT or WIS when doing combines, the likelihood of you not getting any skill ups raises a lot. If you were lower than 190 Tailoring, the likelihood of not getting skill ups drops a lot.

PS - The EQTraders Calculator is completely different due to changed TS values when they revamped to a skill cap of 300 and with increasing stat caps. I wrote a google doc for this calculation/chance to be used over on another emulated server using old code, let me know if you want to use it for your own knowledge, but the answer at the end of the day is max WIS/INT, try to do combines you will succeed at a maximum rate, and keep combining.

[Cecily]

Yeah I spent 3 years and 100k+ to get 215 before Velious. Easily another 100k and a month to max it after Velious dropped. Maxing tailoring is a serious long term and expensive commitment and arguably not worth it anymore after the prices tanked this year. When I worked on cultural, I'd save up batches of 200 combines and be thrilled if I got 15-20 skill ups.

Also, if you're doing super high trivial combines without a resonable chance of success (Velious tailoring with low skill), you're gonna burn through materials without many skill ups.

[zanderklocke]

Does brewing go off strength or Int/Wis, Daldaen. I can't remember.

[Cecily]

Int / Wis. Pretty horrible to train on a melee, but doable.

[RosstheBoss]

I do appreciate the feedback, especially with the statistics. Of course, with statistics it's easier to say something is not manipulated or broken when you get 1, say, instead of 3 skill ups. Instead I got 0, which led me to think that this is broken.

Sooo, I appreciate the responses thanks~

[Cecily]

Oh it's clearly being manipulated to keep new tailors out of the market and drain platinum out of the economy. My advice to you is to get out now. This thread has made you a target if you weren't one already. Probably too late already, but DON'T log into this forum account and your game account at the same time. Good luck and I hope this helps.

[Axlrose]

After reading this thread, it sounds "scary" to attempt any trade skills without being maxed out in a stat. :eek:

[RosstheBoss]

I will get out, thanks Cecily

[Jimjam]

I normally get high enough to make tattered or raw hide, depending on my class. If I really hit it, I can trivial leather padding, hand made backpacks if I am ambitious!

Don't really see the point of getting higher than that, though.

[Moosetoe]

So, the tradeskill skill up calculation pre-2005 does 2 checks to see if you get a skill up. Both checks must be successful for you to get that skill up.

The 1st skill up check is based on your innate stat, the difficulty of the tradeskill, and whether you succeeded or not. The calculation is:

( BASE STAT - SPECIAL TS MOD ) / ( TS DIFFICULTY * FAILURE CHECK )

Base Stat is your WIS/INT or STR/DEX for Blacksmithing/Fletching respectively.
Special TS mod is equal to 0 for Smithing, Fletching and Poisonmaking. Every other TS it is equal to 15.
TS Difficulty is equal to a value between 2-4, Tailoring and Smithing are 2's, Baking and Brewing are 3's, Pottery, Fletching, and JC are 4's
Failure Value is equal to 1 if a success 2 if a failed combine.

This value gives a number, and a roll of 1-100 is performed, if your rolled number is less than the number you have, you pass this check and go to the next check. If your rolled number is greater than the number calculated above the check stops there and you don't get a skill up.

The 2nd skill up check is based on skill. If your TS skill is over 190, then the chance to skill up is a flat 5%. If your TS skill is under 190, then it is (200-SKILL)/2.

SO, an example case. If you are doing Tailoring with 255 INT, at skill of 190:

(255 - 15) / (2*1) = 230/2 = 115. This value exceeds 100, so you will pass the 1st check every time when you succeed the combine. The second check for skill of 190, is a flat 5% chance to skill up so on successful combines you have a 5% chance to succeed.

(255 - 15) / (2*2) = 230/4 = 57.5. This value means on 57% of your failed combines you will pass the first check. The second check for skill of 190, is a flat 5% chance to skill up, but you will only get this far 57% of the time. So the calculation is 0.57*0.05 = 2.875% chance to skill up on a failed combine.

Using your above examples:

94 Othmir Furs, with 11 success and 83 failures

11 * 0.05 = 0.55
83 * 0.02875 = 2.38625

Out of that many you were expected to get just under 3 skill ups.

How unlikely is it that you got 0 skill ups?

(0.95)^11 = 56.88% chance to not get any skill ups out of your 11 Successes
(0.97125)^83 = 8.88% chance to not get any skill ups out of your 83 Fails

Yea you just had bad luck :/. This again assumes you're at a Tailoring skill at or over 190, and it assumes you had INT or WIS at 255. If you had a lower INT or WIS when doing combines, the likelihood of you not getting any skill ups raises a lot. If you were lower than 190 Tailoring, the likelihood of not getting skill ups drops a lot.

PS - The EQTraders Calculator is completely different due to changed TS values when they revamped to a skill cap of 300 and with increasing stat caps. I wrote a google doc for this calculation/chance to be used over on another emulated server using old code, let me know if you want to use it for your own knowledge, but the answer at the end of the day is max WIS/INT, try to do combines you will succeed at a maximum rate, and keep combining.

Then, is the calculation (( Chance of success = MIN(SKILL - (.75*trivial) + 51.5, 95) -- this is for things w/ trivial higher than 68 )) from http://wiki.project1999.com/Tradeskills wrong, and/or is the http://wiki.project1999.com/TradeskillTable wrong?

I attempted many, many Arctic Wyvern Hide Mask, Tigeraptor Mask, and Black Pantherskin Mask - all of which are LISTED as being a 252 trivial (both on the wiki and eqtraders). With 255 WIS, 169 STR, and starting the batch (157 total combines) at 200 skill, I skilled up to 206 (26.2 combines per skill-up). According to the Calculation/Tradeskill Table, it's supposedly 62.5% success at 200, 63.5% at 201, [...], and 68.5% at 206, though I only had 6 successful combines (3.8% success vs. the purported ~65%).

One thing I do find curious, though.. according to the wiki Tradeskill Table I linked up there, 95% success rate is achieved at:
80 skill for a 50 trivial (makes some sense, I guess)
120 skill for a 100 trivial (makes some sense)
160 skill for a 150 trivial (makes sense)
then..
195 skill for a 200 trivial (what?)
235 skill for a 250 trivial (what???)
and lastly...
255 skill for a 280 trivial (though impossible to achieve 255 skill, it makes no sense to me at all that a 280 trivial would be 95% successful at a skill of 255)
...so, I'm definitely wary of trusting the data here..

Also, assuming the calculation I referenced above is true and with such a small amount of data, I calculate the trivial to be more like 334 or so:
SKILL - (.75*trivial) + 51.5)
203 - (.75x) + 51.5 = 3.82% (SKILL averaged to just 203 from 200 -> 206)
-0.75x = -250.68
x = 334.24

ANYWAY, thoughts, Daldaen?

[Detoxx]

Moose, this is Detoxx. Thats quite the post you made.

I cant seem to recall anything regarding this topic...

Wait....











It's all coming back to me now....

#banished

[Cecily]

ANYWAY, thoughts, Daldaen?

Sure. The trivial isn't 252. Velious leathers are around 330 trivial and have about a 60% chance of success like you calculated.

[Kowalski]

...

[Daldaen]

Sure. The trivial isn't 252. Velious leathers are around 330 trivial and have about a 60% chance of success like you calculated.

This.

Velious tailoring sets are actually 335 trivial combines in our era. Not the 252 you see listed. They, along with a variety of other tradeskill combines were dropped from 335 to 250-252 when they increased the TS cap from 250-300. Because they were thought to be too easy of a path to skill up on when a level 70 character could just PBAE all of Velketors and Cobalt Scar solo.

Also yes, the skill required to meet the 95% maximum success rate is a sliding scale.

At the lower skill levels, you need to be beyond the trivial point to reach that maximum success. At the higher skill levels as you see, even being 15-20 skill short of the trivial you still are at maximum success rate.

[Moosetoe]

Thanks, Daldaen.

One more thing:
As I get more skill-ups into Tailoring, I have a higher chance of successfully creating the item and, therefore, have a higher chance of getting a skill-up. However, the higher my skill goes, the harder it is to get another skill-up, right? I mean, at 160, I had an absolute shit chance of actually creating an item that has a trivial 175 points higher, but it was more like 15ish combines to get a skill-up. Now, 45ish skill points higher at 205, I am noticeably more capable of creating an item, but it's 26ish combines to get a single skill-up. At what point does the increased rate of success (and increased chance of getting a skill-up due to successfully creating the item) get "overpowered" by the lowering of chances to get a skill-up due simply to being a higher skill level?

..not sure if I worded that the best I could, and maybe it's a little abstract, but I'm just trying to plan ahead for materials.. Higher skill level, better chance to create the item, faster skill-ups, less materials to finish Tailoring ........ or, higher skill level, harder to get another skill-up, slower skill-ups, more materials to finish Tailoring?

[Daldaen]

190.

After 190 skill your skill up roll on the second roll is a flat 5% chance.

The first roll is the one which factors in the wisdom, success/fail and tradeskill. That roll you currently have a tough time passing a success on because of all the fails. As your success rate increases your chance to pass this roll increases. Which allows you to proceed to the 2nd roll. Which is a flat 5/100 chance going from skill 190-250.

[-Catherin-]

I was trying to get my tailoring up for the shawl. had about 100 combines ready at about 169ish skill. after i got 0 skillups on that i simply went for the combine being under the trivial. failed it once but even that much was a lot quicker and cheaper than leveling the tailoring skill.

[Daldaen]

I was trying to get my tailoring up for the shawl. had about 100 combines ready at about 169ish skill. after i got 0 skillups on that i simply went for the combine being under the trivial. failed it once but even that much was a lot quicker and cheaper than leveling the tailoring skill.

Yea. If you're only doing tailoring for the shawl, get to 158 off Wu's, and then try a few combines on the 6th. It'll be faster and way more cost effective than skilling up beyond this point. 7th shawl you have a very high chance to 1 shot it at 158, but even failing that combine once isn't too awful.

It's a shame we don't have Shawl 8 here. Then it would actually be worth doing. Wtb Luclin.

[Movember]

This thread officially made me decide not to pursue tailoring again. Was debating going for max. Got to ~210 on live and forgot how much it sucked.

[Cecily]

I spent 3 years getting mine capped. Don't really recommend. I lose money on haze panther gear most of the time.

[skarlorn]

Borgnach hasn't gotten a skill up past 175 blacksmithing even after fifteen fine plate combines or even more.