Explain drop rarity?

[Rodeojones1979]

Good morning, team,

Can someone explain to me how to interpret the drop rarity as seen on the p99 Wiki? Take Sentient Armor for example. Under A Suit of Sentient Armor, each peice is listed as:

(Rare) [1] 1x 75% (8%)

I interpreted this as any one of the armor peices drops 8% of the time. But I spent a couple hours trying to farm them last night and didn't see a single one drop. It felt silly! I certainly could have bought a whole set from the takings of just plat farming elsewhere.

Can someone explain this for me? Thanks!

[Qtip]

E*=*mc2. Ive said to much... For more information. Contact your contact.

[Jimjam]

75% of the time the mob will drop X1 item from its loot list [1], with an 8% chance this item will be the one dropped.


Think of black bears.

50% of the time They may drop one of:
- ruined 50%
- Lq 35%
- Mq 10% OR
- Hq 5%

AND

100% of the time they may drop two of:
- bear meat 50%
- nothing 50%

(Ie 25% nothing, 50% 1 bear meat, 25% 2 bear meat)

And 50% of the time they may drop:
-chunk of meat 100%

(Ie half the time they always drop a chunk of meat)

Or that is something like how it works...

So the hq bear skin would be [1] 1x50% (5%)

[Teppler]

Each drop is less than 1% chance for that armor according to the site I use.

[Legidias]

RNG so you might see 5 pieces drop in a row, or more likely 500 suits with 0 drops

[Cecily]

The gambler’s fallacy informs us that our probability of a specific result is directly proportional to number of attempts in games of chance (EQ), provided the data set was properly encoded. A paucity of data skews the results to be statistically relevant by 3 or more standard deviations.

[fadetree]

^ Truth.

[Rodeojones1979]

The gambler’s fallacy informs us that our probability of a specific result is directly proportional to number of attempts in games of chance (EQ), provided the data set was properly encoded. A paucity of data skews the results to be statistically relevant by 3 or more standard deviations.

This is definitely the case, but it did feel like the drop rate was lower than what is documented on P99.

Teppler, what site are you using?

[Muggens]

Dont think about drop rates, just go try get ur drops and have a positive belief u will get it. Ive never spent a long time on a camp

[Rodeojones1979]

Dont think about drop rates, just go try get ur drops and have a positive belief u will get it. Ive never spent a long time on a camp

This is correct.

[Baler]

This is the actual answer to the question.
https://i.imgur.com/MDPpeDE.gif

[Teppler]

This is definitely the case, but it did feel like the drop rate was lower than what is documented on P99.

Teppler, what site are you using?

https://eq.magelo.com/npc/95952

[BarackObooma]

Magelo shows each of the pieces as being less than a 1% drop rate. Each between 3 and 7 drops out of 829 recorded. Something with that low of a drop rate can have huge skews in either direction (getting 2 in a row or not getting one all night).

Also remember that Magelo is based on current EQ and most of the drops don't even exist in our timeline.

[jeremy0818]

It is less than 1% if you are chasing after a specific piece, but if you want 'any Sentient piece' then you need to add them up together, including the axe, which adds up to about 5%, or 1 in every 20 kills

If you remove all the items that never dropped pre-Luclin, such as Defiant armor and some new trade skill components, Magelo is still quite accurate

What you also need to consider is the sample size, some mobs have few thousand kill sample in the database, but some only have 20 kills or less, which would produce not so optimal accuracy, also some mobs like named sirens in Sirens Grotto doesn't even exist in the database

[Rodeojones1979]

It is less than 1% if you are chasing after a specific piece, but if you want 'any Sentient piece' then you need to add them up together, including the axe, which adds up to about 5%, or 1 in every 20 kills

If you remove all the items that never dropped pre-Luclin, such as Defiant armor and some new trade skill components, Magelo is still quite accurate

What you also need to consider is the sample size, some mobs have few thousand kill sample in the database, but some only have 20 kills or less, which would produce not so optimal accuracy, also some mobs like named sirens in Sirens Grotto doesn't even exist in the database

Thank you!