Drusella Sathir and NOS drop rate

[Bagavan]

Perhaps this is just terribly bad RNG but I don't remember the Necklace of Superiority being this rare on blue. I'm starting to wonder if this is bugged so I'm bringing some attention to this to take a look at the drop rate.

I have killed Drusella Sathir every spawn dating back to January 4th and she has yet to drop the Necklace of Superiority. That is 20 consecutive spawns without a drop. Happy to provide logs if needed.

[LRS]

It's incredibly rare (1:40 kills or so), but does drop.

[Bagavan]

38 kills and no necklace, guess it should drop in the next two kills? lol. LRS can you confirm you've seen her drop it on green?

[Bagavan]

Officially surpassed the 1:40 ratio, I'm betting the devs forgot to add the necklace to her loot table.

[Benanov]

Officially surpassed the 1:40 ratio, I'm betting the devs forgot to add the necklace to her loot table.

You don't really understand statistics and probability if you think 1 in 40 is a hard number. It's the probability not a guaranteed rate. There is no counter going "only drop once every 40 kills"

You're comparing your lived experience to the expected value and complaining. That's not really a good idea.

[Uuruk]

I also found this item to be extremely rare. I finally got it to drop and the 10hp on the item helped me survive Hoshkar AEs.

[Bagavan]

Can either of you confirm it has dropped from DS on Green?

[Tunabros]

never got the chance to camp it since someone is always camping it

go figure

[Bagavan]

BUMP, she still hasn't dropped it. It is clear at this point the Dev's forgot to add it to the loot table. I heard from a reliable source today that Drusella was dropping the NOS back when The Kly was dropping it. I figure one of two things happened. Devs removed it from Drusella's loot table due to this error or when they pulled it from The Kly's loot table it also got pulled from Drusella's loot table as it shouldn't have been dropping during that time period.

[enjchanter]

ive seen it drop lol

[Bagavan]

ive seen it drop lol

https://youtu.be/37OWL7AzvHo

[jadier]

https://youtu.be/37OWL7AzvHo

If the drop rate is 1/40, and you kill her 50 times, you STILL have a 1-in-3 chance of not seeing it drop.

Rare drops are rare.

[Bagavan]

If the drop rate is 1/40, and you kill her 50 times, you STILL have a 1-in-3 chance of not seeing it drop.

Rare drops are rare.

I can tell you with certainty it hasn't dropped I believe since it got removed from The Kly. Would be nice if devs would fix this before it becomes a worthless item

[jadier]

I can tell you with certainty it hasn't dropped I believe since it got removed from The Kly. Would be nice if devs would fix this before it becomes a worthless item

Yeah, I don’t believe you can tell me with certainty? What are your data? At least one person in this thread said they’d seen it dropped snd you...memed at them. How many kills do you have logged that you can say “with certainty” a rare drop hasn’t dropped?

[jadier]

To put this in perspective, if you personally were present for every single DS kill on Green server since launch, AND the drop rate really is 1/40 (and not, say, 1/50 or 1/100) then there'd *still* be a 1% chance it's working normally and you just got unlucky.

If you've missed literally any spawns, or if the correct drop rate is lower, then the chance you've been unlucky is higher.

Hence, I sincerely doubt you can say it isn't dropping with certainty.

[Bagavan]

My ench buddy and I have killed every spawn since Jan 4th....

[Izmael]

In a few months superior necks will be plentiful and readily available in WW for a fraction of the time/effort needed to loot a NoS.

[Uuruk]

Tell me you play p99 like a job without telling me you play p99 like a job

[Videri]

I looted one two days ago. The 10 HP was kind of lackluster, so I gave it to the enc pet.

[Bagavan]

Appreciate the free bumps but please keep the useless spam out of this bug report

[jadier]

My ench buddy and I have killed every spawn since Jan 4th....


That's 94 times you've killed DS.

If the drop rate is 1/40 that means there's a 1-in-10 chance you've been unlucky.

If the drop rate is 1/50, that's a 3-in-20 chance you've been unlucky.

If the drop rate is 1/100, that's a 4-in-10 chance you've been unlucky.

The devs make mistakes, sure, but I think the probability they just accidentally left an item off DS' loot table is much less than 10%. So even at the highest estimated drop rate, that's just not very unlikely. This is most likely not a bug.

[Arvan]

Does nobody understand how probabilities work? If it has a 1/40 chance of dropping and you kill the mob 100 times the 101st kill still has a 1/40 chance of dropping

[qezelia]

In a few months superior necks will be plentiful and readily available in WW for a fraction of the time/effort needed to loot a NoS.

I get what you're saying, but that's kinda like saying it'd be ok if FBSS (or any other item comparison) didn't drop in classic because Sash of the Dragonborn will drop in Kunark.

That's 94 times you've killed DS.

If the drop rate is 1/40 that means there's a 1-in-10 chance you've been unlucky.

If the drop rate is 1/50, that's a 3-in-20 chance you've been unlucky.

If the drop rate is 1/100, that's a 4-in-10 chance you've been unlucky.

The devs make mistakes, sure, but I think the probability they just accidentally left an item off DS' loot table is much less than 10%. So even at the highest estimated drop rate, that's just not very unlikely. This is most likely not a bug.

Yes because the first post in the thread claiming it's a 1/40 drop rate is gospel.

If the drop rate is 1/10 that means there's an almost 0% chance you could be that unlucky.

If the drop rate is 1/20 that's a less than 1% chance you could be that unlucky.

Kunark is more than half over and she likely hasn't dropped it a single time. Does it really seem that unfathomable that the devs missed something? And if it's not broken, is this really what the drop rate should be? I may have been a 9 year old idiot when I was playing EQ back in the day, but I do recall seeing this item for sale (I quit early on in Velious). If it was really that rare, I doubt I would have even known it existed.

Also, in case you were unaware, NoS isn't supposed to be on DS' loot table at all times. It originally dropped from The Kly in Dalnir and is supposed to be moved to DS after it is removed from the The Kly. So yes, it does seem to be a bit of a coincidence that there is potentially some extremely poor RNG going on with a mob that is supposed to experience a loot table update. It's at least worth double checking at this point, no?

Does nobody understand how probabilities work? If it has a 1/40 chance of dropping and you kill the mob 100 times the 101st kill still has a 1/40 chance of dropping

While what you're saying is true, that isn't the argument we have taking place. Each individual time she is killed, if it is assumed the drop rate is a 1/40 (2.5%) chance, then yes, you are correct, you have a 2.5% chance of a NoS dropping on that particular kill.

However, if you kill her 101 times, then the probability you will find at least one NoS amongst those kills is roughly 92.25%.

Two very different things.