I am a gambling beast

[goodle]

Started at 5k today and cashed out at 12k . Surprised more people don't do it.

[Autotune]

I started at 400k today, and ended up with 50k. No wonder more people don't do it.

[Runningfish]

yes and it's all luck... people don't do it because in the end you will lose. Sometimes it's fun though

[Supaskillz]

b/c the odds are stacked against you? that seems like reason enough lol

[Knuckle]

nah odds are stacked in ur favor cuz u just double up go 1pp 2pp 4pp 8pp 16pp 32pp 64pp 128pp 256pp 512pp 1024pp 2048pp 4096pp 8192pp 16384pp 32768pp 65536pp thats how i made 130kpp

[Dr4z3r]

nah odds are stacked in ur favor cuz u just double up go 1pp 2pp 4pp 8pp 16pp 32pp 64pp 128pp 256pp 512pp 1024pp 2048pp 4096pp 8192pp 16384pp 32768pp 65536pp thats how i made 130kpp

The Martingale (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)) is only safe with unlimited 1) Bankroll, 2) Bet Maximum, and 3) Time.

[Mcbard]

I've tried to figure out if a proper betting strategy with correct limits would work.

ex: If you're playing a 100pp-1000pp casino and min bet is 50 with increments of 100 you would start low and always bet what you lost. Let's say the rules are 575+ you double, 900+ you triple, and 975+ you win 5x your bet, this is how it would go down:

1. Place 100pp bet (win +100, lose -100) If win start over at step 1, if lose go to 2.
2. Place 100pp bet (win +0, lose -200) If win start over at step 1, if lose go to step 3.
3. Place 200pp bet (win +0, lose -400) If win start over at step 1, if lose go to step 4.
4. Place 400pp bet (win +0, lose -800) If win start over at step 1, if lose go to step 5.
5. Place 800pp bet (win +0, lose -1.6k)

So essentially you would have to lose 5 rolls in a row in order to not break even or be up. All money would be made in small increments at 100pp a time and/or while rolling 900+ (just like in BJ you make them on double downs on hitting BJ). I don't remember my statistics well enough to calculate your odds using this, but with the right minimum increments and the right odds I think it could help.

[Nubben]

In the above game there is no proper betting strategy. The game is basically the same as flipping a coin. If you play it enough times, you and the house will both break even.

Using a bet of 100 to keep the math simple:

57.5% of the time (1 to 574) you will lose 100.
32.5% of the time (575 to 899) you will win 100.
7.5% of the time (900 to 974) you will win 200.
2.5% of the time (975 to 1000) you will win 400.

So each time you bet 100 you will win
(-100*.575) = -57.5
(100*.325) = 32.5
(200*.075) = 15
(400*.025) = 10
(-57.5+32.5+15+10) = 0

This math remains the same no matter what your bet is.

Basically, this game is a big waste of time unless you like betting on coin flips. You might as well just run a casino that is /random 1 2 where a 1 you lose and a 2 you win, you'll end up with the same results in the long run.

[JayDee]

go to vegas and make something out of yourself

[Mcbard]

In the above game there is no proper betting strategy. The game is basically the same as flipping a coin. If you play it enough times, you and the house will both break even.

Using a bet of 100 to keep the math simple:

57.5% of the time (1 to 574) you will lose 100.
32.5% of the time (575 to 899) you will win 100.
7.5% of the time (900 to 974) you will win 200.
2.5% of the time (975 to 1000) you will win 400.

So each time you bet 100 you will win
(-100*.575) = -57.5
(100*.325) = 32.5
(200*.075) = 15
(400*.025) = 10
(-57.5+32.5+15+10) = 0

This math remains the same no matter what your bet is.

Basically, this game is a big waste of time unless you like betting on coin flips. You might as well just run a casino that is /random 1 2 where a 1 you lose and a 2 you win, you'll end up with the same results in the long run.

True, but you're not accounting for instances where you just win 100 and start over, or you win 900+ and make money. Just like playing BJ where you make all of your money from doubling down and hitting BJ, not beating the dealer. Also, if your math is correct this would increase your odds from .435% to .50%. Seems good to me!

[Knuckle]

The Martingale (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)) is only safe with unlimited 1) Bankroll, 2) Bet Maximum, and 3) Time.


wrong + you start over at minimum bet after you win every time in my system. I dont continue to double my bet each time but only after a loss. This ensure that you start at a reasonable rate and decreases the odds for catastrophic loss since you are starting with a low bet untill you get a win. It's only if you get greedy and continue to double your bet after a win that you risk heavy losses.

[yaaaflow]

Ya'll need to learn yourselves some gambling theory if you really think you've found a way to beat a -EV game.

[Nubben]

It's not negative EV, it's just 0 EV (if the game I used in my post is actually the game being spread in EC, I wouldn't know though, I don't spend much time there)

[Supaskillz]

LOL at people thinking they can win long run in a game with neg EV(ie all games run by EC casinos). Why are you on EQ and not playing roulette in Vegas making millions?

[Mcbard]

Probably because they're playing internet poker like everyone else.

[yaaaflow]

Probably because they're playing internet poker like everyone else.

except americans lol

[Nimblerot]

wrong + you start over at minimum bet after you win every time in my system. I dont continue to double my bet each time but only after a loss. This ensure that you start at a reasonable rate and decreases the odds for catastrophic loss since you are starting with a low bet untill you get a win. It's only if you get greedy and continue to double your bet after a win that you risk heavy losses.

There is no system that works for any gambling game where the odds favor the house. Your system might have worked for you, but that's just because you got lucky in the short term.

Its like the dumb people that think that covering every number but a few in roulette gives them better odds. Man, most people that gamble are not only really dumb but they don't even realize how dumb they are. Glad I don't work in one anymore!

[goodle]

Say what you guys want. I am up to 18k now from my 5k starting.

[Nimblerot]

Say what you guys want. I am up to 18k now from my 5k starting.

As a former blackjack dealer of five years, this is how I read that statement:

"You guys don't know shit! You and your numbers and maths, LOOK AT MY MONEY! I have MORE of it than I started with, so CLEARLY this game is 100% awesome and I'm going to be rich as long as I keep playing! I AM SMARTER THAN YOU HAHAHAHAHA"

30-45 minutes pass...

"Unbelievable. This game is bullshit, this is rigged and you're an asshole. Why couldn't you just let me win man? What the fuck, this is stupid, you got like 7 21's in a row. Fuck this, I have better places to spend my unemployment."

[Pico]

I CALL HIM GAMBLOR

[goodle]

Up to 21k now. All you doubters can keep doubting me. 5k to 21k in two days of work.

[Alex]

Goodle is likely trolling, whether he's telling the truth or not.

That or he's just a moronic tool

[goodle]

I'm rich and you aren't. You mad?

[pickled_heretic]

the probability of a catastrophic, irreconcilable loss balances out any small, short-term gains you are making in the long run.

[Vohl]

Congratulations on your good fortune, goodle. As others here have said, don't count on it continuing to last.

[WizardEQ]

What are the rules of the game?

Is this the one being run in EC tunnel?

[Theldios]

Or is it that he is a seed? You know someone the Casino pays to spread the "good" word so more people try to do like him.
It's like when casinos put peoples pictures up that have hit jackpots

[WizardEQ]

Or is it that he is a seed? You know someone the Casino pays to spread the "good" word so more people try to do like him.
It's like when casinos put peoples pictures up that have hit jackpots

+1

Gambling is all about playing with people's emotions, and taking advantage of one's use of "common sense" over deductive thinking.

For example, if you walked up to a roulette wheel and saw that the previous 10 rolls were 31, would you have more of an urge to place a bet on 31? Most people would (even I'd have the urge), even though the odds of it coming up are the same before the 10 rolls, which is 1-in-38 (36 numbers plus 0 & 00 on American wheels).

Shills work the same way. They are placed around the casinos strategically to play with gamblers' emotions, swaying them one way or the other. Gambling is a multi-billion dollar business, so with that much money involved casinos are always trying to get in more revenue because they can. Foxwoods in CT earns one billion just off its slots alone, an utter travesty in my opinion, but those who play them get some time of utility cost from it I suppose.

[Mcbard]

those who play them get some time of utility cost from it I suppose.

Ya, when I go gambling irl I'm generally not going to win(although it would be nice!) I'm typically going to play some games and have a good time. When I gamble in EC it's not because I think I have some plan to hit it rich, I usually just have some pp weighing me down and I'm bored so I figure why the hell not. I mean I've deleted it plenty of times, no harm in gaming with it instead. =p

[dusk883]

I'm rich and you aren't. You mad?

rich with 21k? That's like $4 RMT plat...

(not that I would have ANY idea)

[MandalayBay]

lawls. Come see me at T2.

[sellawiz]

Or is it that he is a seed? You know someone the Casino pays to spread the "good" word so more people try to do like him.
It's like when casinos put peoples pictures up that have hit jackpots

+1

[sellawiz]

rich with 21k? That's like $4 RMT plat...

(not that I would have ANY idea)

The average American's time is worth around $10 an hour, therefore you say a person could earn 21,000P in 4/10 of an hour meaning it takes 24 minutes to earn 21,000P.

Even if the average gamer's time is only worth $5 an hour, you are still saying he can make 26,250P per hour consistently.

It's more likely that the average player can earn around 1000P per hour, if you are selling for that price you are earning around $0.19 per hour.

If you are really selling plat you are getting utterly raped, and I'm glad because you shouldn't be breaking the rules.

[Knuckle]

There is no system that works for any gambling game where the odds favor the house. Your system might have worked for you, but that's just because you got lucky in the short term.

Its like the dumb people that think that covering every number but a few in roulette gives them better odds. Man, most people that gamble are not only really dumb but they don't even realize how dumb they are. Glad I don't work in one anymore!

wrong b/c the hows knows my theory beats them so they require a somewhat high mimumm bet and set a maximum bet.

[sellawiz]

GOOGLE SUCKS COCK AND GOOGLE SUCKS COCK ....
-1

[pickled_heretic]

wrong b/c the hows knows my theory beats them so they require a somewhat high mimumm bet and set a maximum bet.

no, it doesn't. with any amount of finite money, if you play the game for long enough, the chance of catastrophic, irreconcilable loss exactly balances out your short term gains.

it's basically a form of gambling with risk, where you are accepting a small risk of huge losses in order to make smaller amounts of money gradually.

[Tumdumm]

i just googled what 'shill' means & i like it

[WizardEQ]

As a former blackjack dealer of five years, this is how I read that statement:

Can you tell when someone is counting cards?

Most BJ dealers are very cool and give players advice on basic strategy alone, like standing on a 12 count when dealer shows a 2 or 3, but hitting when dealer shows a 6 because dealer is more likely to bust.

If you play perfect basic strategy with 6 decks, you can cancel out the house's advantage. This strategy is based on Monte Carlo simulations, which means all the variables are feed into a computer, millions of simulations are run on every possible combination, and certain rules become evident. If you play by all these rules (which include when to double down, split your pairs) then you can play til your heart's content, neither gaining or losing in the long run. Only until you vary your bets based on the amount of favorable vs. non-favorable cards left in the deck can you actually gain in the long run. Notice I say in the long run. Any fool can split 6's and see a dealer bust on a 10 once. If you do that all the time, you will LOSE big time.

If you count cards and are proficient at it, you can raise your odds to 7%. That may not seems like a lot, but over time and compounded it can raise eyebrows at any casino I've ever played at.

[Goobles]

http://www.amazon.com/Conquering-Risk-Attacking-Vegas-Street/dp/1450723004

You want that book, amateur bettors.

A good place to start would be www.sbrforum.com.

But I guess you knew that already.

[nalkin]

If you play perfect basic strategy with 6 decks, you can cancel out the house's advantage. This strategy is based on Monte Carlo simulations, which means all the variables are feed into a computer, millions of simulations are run on every possible combination, and certain rules become evident. If you play by all these rules (which include when to double down, split your pairs) then you can play til your heart's content, neither gaining or losing in the long run. Only until you vary your bets based on the amount of favorable vs. non-favorable cards left in the deck can you actually gain in the long run. Notice I say in the long run. Any fool can split 6's and see a dealer bust on a 10 once. If you do that all the time, you will LOSE big time.

If you count cards and are proficient at it, you can raise your odds to 7%. That may not seems like a lot, but over time and compounded it can raise eyebrows at any casino I've ever played at.

That is not true. Basic strategy doesn't put you above house odds. It gives the house like a 0.5% advantage. If you card count with normal popular strategies you gain around a 1% advantage over the house.

I haven't really gambled but I went to a casino once and the dealers were incredibly ignorant about blackjack actually. This wasn't vegas so perhaps thats why, but they were giving advice like "You don't know my face down card, so you should assume its a 10 value card", which is something you should never assume.

[yaaaflow]

Haha a 7% edge would be so ridiculously exploitable that no casino would consider dealing blackjack if it were regularly possible. Theoretically if you were counting cards and the count was ridiculously in your favor then for a single hand or two you could approach a 7% edge but by no means could you have that edge over any significant run of hands.

Not to mention that I'm sure that post is considering single deck blackjack which is barely spread anywhere anymore, and when it is the payout on a blackjack is 6-5 instead of 3-2 which steals another 1.4% of your equity on any given hand.

[Nimblerot]

Can you tell when someone is counting cards?

Most BJ dealers are very cool and give players advice on basic strategy alone, like hitting on a 12 count when dealer shows a 2, but not when dealer shows a 5 or 6 because dealer is more likely to bust.


While the casino I worked at was fairly large (one of the largest Indian casinos in the country), most of the tables had CSMs which make counting cards not possible. On the games that we did have 6 deck regular blackjack, I feel like it would be pretty easy to identify a card counter for me. Some dealers would be oblivious though, for sure. The hard part about being a dealer is dealing with assholes, not actually dealing the game, so there are some pretty dumb dealers.

I haven't really gambled but I went to a casino once and the dealers were incredibly ignorant about blackjack actually. This wasn't vegas so perhaps thats why, but they were giving advice like "You don't know my face down card, so you should assume its a 10 value card", which is something you should never assume.

You tell new players this as a rule of thumb so that they don't do stupid shit like stay on 14 against a dealer's 7. It's very hard to explain how to properly play blackjack without overwhelming them in the brief period they are usually at the table. If an exception to the rule comes up while playing, you explain it then. Also, the phrase should be "play as if the dealer's down card is a 10", not "assume the dealer's down card is a 10".

There are definitely dealers that give out wrong advice, but they're usually pretty easy to identify. They're either new or dumb. But dealers live off tips (usually are paid minimum wage but make at least 2-3x that in tips, way more in Vegas), so they will help you out in any way they can.

[Nimblerot]

wrong b/c the hows knows my theory beats them so they require a somewhat high mimumm bet and set a maximum bet.

You're either a terrible troll or don't understand math... I can't decide which though. Table limits are there to control variance, or in the case of table minimums to make sure the table is generating enough money to be worth the room on the casino floor.

If you don't believe me (and why would you, I'm only smarter than you and worked in the industry for five years), here's a link for you: http://www.wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html

[Nimblerot]

Not to mention that I'm sure that post is considering single deck blackjack which is barely spread anywhere anymore, and when it is the payout on a blackjack is 6-5 instead of 3-2 which steals another 1.4% of your equity on any given hand.

This. The casino that I worked at had single deck blackjack, but not only did blackjack pay 6-5, but we cut the deck in half and only used the top half, usually two hands for a full table. Also, all cards were face down until they needed to be revealed, usually at the end of the hand. Good luck getting an edge over the house with those variables.

[WizardEQ]

That is not true. Basic strategy doesn't put you above house odds.

Read my post again; I never say ABOVE house odds, I just say cancels the odds. With a single deck, it's practically zero. With 6-8 it is around 0.5% as you said. This is of course all theoretically. It is much harder to actually play at a large casino, with all the distractions, drinks, girls, and bling.

If you count cards and adjust not only your betting but your bidding according to the count, you can definitely overpower the house significantly (7% is IMO conservative). It's all about consistency, following your own set rules (like leaving a table after losing a certain amount of hands). I believe in math and theory but you can also develop a sixth sense about the dealer, the attitude of the pit boss, and your surroundings, when to continue, when to run.

[WizardEQ]

This. The casino that I worked at had single deck blackjack, but not only did blackjack pay 6-5...

The single deck is mouth-watering. The payout on BJ is horrid. No thanks!

[WizardEQ]

But dealers live off tips (usually are paid minimum wage but make at least 2-3x that in tips, way more in Vegas), so they will help you out in any way they can.

Dealers aren't rich and tipping them accordingly makes for a great playing atmosphere. I always wanted to punch that guy in the head who was streaking at $1000 mins and throwing the dealer $5s. I always do 10% every third or forth win. I figure I'm still going to be up in the long run and I don't really do it as a profession, just to have fun and walk away a winner.

[Vile]

WTB Texas Holdem in game. for PP.. who is w/ me bros? Get this shit coded asap... fuck being classic

[Nubben]

Hey gambling beast, how about letting us in on some picks for this weekends college football and NFL games

[mala]

heres a pick for the entire season.

OU = number 1