Expected damage saved pre-slow by FSI overall:
82.75% of the time: none
17.25% of the time: 133

Total:
0 * .8275 + 133 * .1725 = 22.9425

Your flaw is that you are trying to spread out the damage saved from FSI over an average, which doesn't make sense.

23 or 24 HP makes no difference in the pre-slow phase of the fight. When you do get hit for hundreds of HP worth of damage during the 3% of the time when FSI matters, you are in much greater danger.

This is why FSI is better than Iksar/Troll Regeneration. Removing a damage spike of hundreds of damage from at least 3% of your fights is better than gaining 24 HP in all of your fights consistently, which is essentially meaningless.

Math is math.

His logic and reasoning is quite sound. Yes extraordinarily bad luck is possible, but so is extraordinarily good luck on the other end of the spectrum

Thanks for the work bcbrown

This is a reasonable opinion. I find it fairly compelling for anyone who's endgame gameplay is primarily soloing WW dragons and cliff golems.

It's not an opinion, it is indeed a fact.

Iksar/Troll Regeneration will always give you 24 HP in the first 17 seconds of the pre-slow phase of the fight. Factually speaking the odds of 24 HP saving you in any individual fight is significantly lower than 3%. It's much closer to 0%. FSI will give you either 0 HP, or Hundreds of HP in the first 17 seconds of the pre-slow phase of the fight.

Iksar/Troll Regeneration gives you basically the equivalent of 0 HP consistently in the first 17 seconds of the fight. FSI sometimes gives you hundreds of HP in the first 17 seconds of the fight, which is significant.

Something is better than nothing in this case factually speaking. Reducing a damage spike in 3% of your fights is better than an almost 0% chance of surviving a fight with only 24 HP remaining.

FSI is indeed better than Iksar/Troll Regeneration on a Torpor Shaman. It is the Min/Max option. The math and evidence presented shows this result clearly.

It is also not limited to soloing WW dragons and cliff golems. Shamans tank well in groups, and raid Shamans use https://wiki.project1999.com/Di%60zok_Oracle_Shillelagh to slow mobs.

Indeed.

*Sometimes = the bash actually hit you, the bash actually stunned you if it hit, the mob landed at least an average amount of hits for average damage during the time you had to wait for stun to end and start your cast all over again, you were in the middle of casting a spell when the bash hit (in one of your examples it happened, but after your spell finished) you were the one tanking (often the case when solo) - AND such an occurrence had a meaningful impact on the success/failure of the encounter in question.

Like I have said previously ... meeting all of the above criteria is that perfect storm of awful which, from personal experience, I can promise you has never actually happened to my Troll shaman during my time spent playing him (to include soloing WW dragons, Cliff golems, etc).

The argument is certainly worth considering if your only goal playing your shaman is to solo trophy mobs at level 60. But then you have to ignore the entire part of your shaman that might play in groups, duos, trios, use your dog to pet, are root rotting ... or really every aspect of the game levels 1-59 and pre-torpor.

Even considering that extremely narrow focus of the game, my stance remains that the regen is going to be more potent in the long run.

Edit: grammar

Averages are how this game works. A 3% chance to reduce damage spikes that are hundreds of damage is better than a near 0% chance of surviving with 24 HP left. Damage spikes are the most dangerous thing a Torpor Shaman faces. This is in solo, group, or raid scenarios. I never said FSI was a game breaking advantage. I am simply pointing out the mathematical fact that 3% > ~0%. This is why FSI is better.

Yes, this is what you do when looking at Min/Max. You figure out what the best possible character you can make looks like, assuming you reached the end of the game. In the case of Everquest, that means Level 60, full spell book, full BiS gear.

Everybody agrees that Iksar/Troll Regeneration is better while leveling. I say so as much in my guide, which is years old at this point. But there are plenty of people who spend more time farming the endgame than playing the leveling game. There are also plenty of people who spend more time in the leveling game than the endgame.

That is why I give people all of the facts and let them decide what to do. If you want to Min/Max, Ogre is the answer. If you want to have the best time leveling from 1-60 before you get Torpor, Troll is the answer. Once people have all of the information about the game, they can confidently decide what they want to do at character creation.

And in doing so you have to acknowledge that the botb shaman was a barbarian who had neither racial boosts. The take home point is that NONE of it was NECESSARY. The question is which provides the most boost/benefit over the life of a charcter.

If neither is a hard or soft requirement:

Answer: regen; by a college mile.

I am not sure why you keep repeating this. Nobody that I have seen has claimed that racials were necessary. I have never said this either in any forum post ever. Who are you arguing against lol?

The point that racials are not necessary is completely irrelevant to which racial is objectively best when Min/Maxing, which is FSI for Shamans. Objectively Best != Necessary.