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1 = 65 2 = 42.3 3 = 27.5 4 = 17.9 5 = 11.6 6 = 7.5 7 = 4.9 8 = 3.2 9 = 2.1 That deviates already at 2 attempts, where they said it would have a 50% chance. So I went with increasing rate of success, following repeat failures. Overall it works out to be pretty similar. H |
I have been tracking this with Raev over the past couple weeks. he says his fail rate has been roughly 6%. And I have been insisting mine is much worse. With many Fails coming back to back.
My FD key is a little more then Raev's /target Hydecka /attack off /doability 1 (FD) /doability 2 (sneak) /loc I added the target Hydecka to target myself recently just to make sure it wasn't an attack issue because of how often I fail. This is my first 9 FDs after logging into Seb tonight. [Tue Oct 14 00:28:34 2014] Hydecka has fallen to the ground. [Tue Oct 14 00:28:34 2014] You begin to sneak... [Tue Oct 14 00:28:35 2014] Your Location is -273.33, 129.78, -32.25 [Tue Oct 14 00:28:45 2014] You begin to sneak... [Tue Oct 14 00:28:46 2014] Your Location is -404.54, 103.92, -32.25 [Tue Oct 14 00:29:42 2014] You begin to sneak... [Tue Oct 14 00:29:42 2014] Your Location is -264.59, 136.75, -32.25 [Tue Oct 14 00:29:57 2014] You begin to sneak... [Tue Oct 14 00:29:58 2014] Your Location is -194.48, 124.96, -28.20 [Tue Oct 14 00:30:13 2014] You begin to sneak... [Tue Oct 14 00:30:13 2014] Your Location is -176.15, 1.10, -11.34 [Tue Oct 14 00:30:46 2014] You begin to sneak... [Tue Oct 14 00:30:46 2014] Your Location is 9.94, 0.99, 3.75 [Tue Oct 14 00:40:01 2014] You begin to sneak... [Tue Oct 14 00:40:01 2014] Your Location is 187.76, -2.17, 39.96 [Tue Oct 14 00:45:44 2014] Hydecka has fallen to the ground. [Tue Oct 14 00:45:44 2014] You begin to sneak... [Tue Oct 14 00:45:44 2014] Your Location is 234.52, 6.17, 40.28 [Tue Oct 14 00:47:37 2014] Hydecka has fallen to the ground. [Tue Oct 14 00:47:37 2014] You stop sneaking. [Tue Oct 14 00:47:37 2014] Your Location is 242.37, 6.97, 40.57 That is 3 Failed out of 9 within 19 mins. And yes those last 2 were back to back... It is almost to the point where it is not worth playing a monk. And I have been talking to Shammies with the FD ring and they have been failing it fairly regularly also... |
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I've only played a Monk for 26 levels on P1999, and I can anecdotally say that FD works the vast, vast majority of the time. |
Hydecka, you can use my links with Wolfram Alpha to plug in your numbers. If FD is truly 5%, then the chance of getting 3 out of 9 fails is slightly less than 1%. This sounds random, but since there are thousands of monks on the server using it constantly, it's actually almost guaranteed to happen.
Speaking of which, I promised to update my numbers there. I have 410,000 new log lines since 9/28: Code:
zonko@vanderboom$ tail -n 410000 Logs/eqlog_Raev_project1999.txt | grep "Raev has fallen to the ground" | wc -lChance of this happening according to Wolfram Alpha: 5.5%. So I could ALMOST write a scientific paper about how FD is broken and get it into a journal (usually they want 95% confidence). Of course, this is also why so much crap is published in medical journals: you do 20 experiments and one works, so you can publish that one :D Note to Hydecka: the reason my 5.5% is so much more interesting than your 1%, nominally a smaller number, is that my sample size is 100x larger. But still, if we suppose FD is implemented correctly and there are 100 high level monks, then 5 of them will experience my level of success or less. Or with 25 2 week periods per year, each monk should get 1 period with this level of failures or more. I have a healthy amount of respect for the streakiness of random number generators, but its hard for me to understand how that could be happening here. As I posted on page 1, even if the RNG was "return counter++ % 100" I would still expect it to look pretty random here because there would be so many calls between my FD attempts. verdict: if I had to guess, I would say maybe the chance is more like 6-7% instead of 4.8. But I am not sure, and Haynar has a lot of other things to do. |
Last night was just an example of how bad it has been for me. Ill see if i can plug all my logs for the past 2 months into it and see what happens.
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Sample of failure rate with necro spell Feign Death over 135 attempts (no spell interruption or cancels)
Code:
➜ eqLogs git:(master) ✗ echo "scale=4;$(grep -c 'Xenow has fallen to' ./eqlog_Xenow_project1999.txt)/$(grep -c 'You begin casting Feign' ./eqlog_Xenow_project1999.txt)"|bc -i |
Not bumping this necessarily, but I did want to log this somewhere since I found it searching for other things. Here's a decent sample size of a ~60 necro casting Feign Death, from both the spell and a Coterie Mask of the Dead, in late December 2001.
Failures = fallen to the ground Code:
With no Agro: 98 tries, 12 failures |
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