Project 1999 - What's your "I have the worst luck" EQ moment(s)?

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- - What's your "I have the worst luck" EQ moment(s)? (/forums/showthread.php?t=437615)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samoht (Post 3715087)

This sample size is no where near what's required to assume the probability is low.

Huh? The % chance of succeeding the combine for a single attempt is ~40%. Probabilities are multiplicative and you can find the % chance associated with failing X attempts based on this.

For one attempt, since the chance of success is 40%, the chance of failure is 60%.

OP decided to queue up five attempts. His chance of failing all five attempts (i.e., not having a single success) is 0.6^5, or 0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6, which is ~0.078%. Pretty close to 1%.

Take for example, another scenario in which his chance of success in one attempt is also 40%, but he queues up 1000 attempts. His chance of success is still 40% on each attempt, but in 1000 attempts there isn’t a 40% chance that he’ll succeed just once. After only a few attempts it becomes less and less probable that he’ll continue to fail every attempt.

Quote:

Originally Posted by moozh (Post 3717058)

Probabilities are multiplicative

They are not.

This is the gambler's fallacy.

One failure does not increase your chance on success on the next attempt.

Don't spread lies.

So does this mean, if you flip a coin 50 times.

Sometimes youll get 49 heads 1 tails?

Sometimes youll get 49 tails 1 heads?

Sometimes youll get 50 heads? Sometimes youll get 50 tails?

Or if you flip a coin 50 times, youll on average get 25 of each?

If so, and for some reason you are looking at 40 heads after 40 flips, wouldn't the odds that it will be tails be higher? or is this just only explainable with a catchphrase "gamblers phalacy" unless you have a PHD in mathematics?

Quote:

ou’re onto an interesting thought process here, but let's break it down a bit.
1. Coin flips are independent events.

A coin flip is (assuming it's a fair coin) independent of all the flips that came before it. That means, on each flip, the probability of getting heads or tails is always 50/50, no matter what’s happened up to that point.

So if you’ve already flipped 40 heads in 40 flips (wildly unlikely, but not impossible), the odds of the next flip being tails are still 50%. This is where the gambler's fallacy comes in—thinking past outcomes influence future probabilities in independent events. They don’t.
2. Outcomes over 50 flips.

If you flip a coin 50 times, on average, you’ll get 25 heads and 25 tails, but that doesn’t mean it will always land exactly like that. Probability allows for a range of outcomes:

It’s very rare to get something extreme like 50 heads or 50 tails, but it’s not impossible.
The most likely outcome is something close to 25 heads and 25 tails, but the exact distribution will vary with each set of 50 flips.

The more flips you do, the closer the ratio of heads to tails is likely to get to 50:50 (this is the law of large numbers), but over small numbers of flips, you’ll see more variation.
3. What about 40 heads in 40 flips?

This is insanely improbable but not impossible. The probability of flipping 40 heads in a row is:
(0.5)40=1 in 1,099,511,627,776
(0.5)40=1 in 1,099,511,627,776

So if you're seeing that, you're either:

Very lucky (or unlucky).
Flipping a rigged coin. ��

But even then, the odds for the 41st flip are still 50/50 if the coin is fair.
TL;DR:

Coin flips are independent.
On average, you’ll get close to 25 heads and 25 tails in 50 flips, but it’s not guaranteed.
The gambler’s fallacy explains why we feel like tails would be "due" after seeing 40 heads, but mathematically, the odds remain the same: 50/50.

someone taught this thing TL;DR lol.

Only got ~8 manastones instead of 9?

Ohh look, it's mr one trick pony himself.

Oh, and pointless caveat filled "fastest to 50" (using hunderds of hours of other peoples time) "first to kill <a_lame_mob1>" (in a sea of mediocracy maybe has 1/10 merit) and the evergreen "highest DPS within a narrow scope that nobody else bothers with".

See my sig for more info! Lolocaust.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ekco (Post 3717525)

https://i.imgur.com/gO0LeQQ.png

Quote:

Originally Posted by shovelquest (Post 3717476)

If so, and for some reason you are looking at 40 heads after 40 flips, wouldn't the odds that it will be tails be higher?

no, you would not have a higher percent chance of getting tails after 40 heads in a row. that's what the other people are implying by using the word "probability"

previous iterations have zero impact on the next event.

it's still 50/50 to be heads again.

I’d say after getting heads 40 times in a row you’re most likely to get heads next - it is more likely you have an imbalanced or double headed coin than you’ve got a one in a trillion streak of heads on a equally balanced coin.