Hadden
 

Someone do the math for me, what are the odds Hadden does not have an earring 16 spawns in a row? Also now he spawns without a pole sometimes and does not have an earring, that's new.

33.3% chance repeating of course

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the erroneous belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past. Such events, having the quality of historical independence, are referred to as statistically independent. The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more than usually likely to be six because there have recently been less than the usual number of sixes.

About 1% assuming the earring has a 25% chance of dropping. So this streak isn’t particularly notable in a game where he’s camped literally thousands of times. But it is unfortunate, so sorry man!

That's what I was coming up with as well. What's particularly concerning though is the fact that Hadden spawns without a fishing pole and no earring.

I don't believe that any single time it's any more than 25% chance of dropping. But 16 times in a row, only 1% chance as someone else noted.

f math.

Sounds like p99 luck to me, i once decided i would try to camp a fbss after killing around 30 frenzies i left guk

After you get to 43 frenzies in a row and no fbss, then you match my bad luck.

17 in a row no earring