Tserinna broken?
 

I've killed Tserrina 32 times now and so far i have seen:
3 staffs
2 Whips
27 symbols...
0 robes
Does she not drop the robe anymore or something? There is no way it should be this rare.

34
4 staffs
2 whips
28 symbols
0 robes

got you bro.

lol.

There was a thread almost identical to this last year. Link

I'll sum it up for you


To which Nilbog replied

That guy never updated his thread to say he got the robe, so I assume he didn't. Telin did post in that thread it's a 1/20 drop but all I've heard are horror stories or complete luck of getting it on the first kill. Good luck OP.

robe dropped 2 or 3 nights ago, so just crazy rare

Couple years ago me and buddy needed 2 robes, got them both in 3 kills... yikes

I also got the robe this year, want to say it was in June, took 18 kills for it.

ive seen robes drop as recently as a month ago

Nope, I never saw one. And as you can probably tell, that camp broke me. I ended up taking 3 months off P99 right after and I deleted my Necro when I came back so I would never be tempted to try again.

At a 1 in 20 drop rate, you need to kill her 58 times (what I did) for a 95% chance of getting the robe. Or, to be really sure, you need to kill her 89 times for a 99% chance of getting the robe. Neither of those two are scenarios are supported in any way by data I was able to find from Live.

I hope you have better luck than I did,

Zentile

TL;DR - gambler's fallacy