Problem with tailoring skill ups
 

First, it was 46 black panther skins without 1 skill up.

Then, it was 94 othmir furs without 1 skill up.

My guess would be that this is being manipulated or is broken. I successfully made 11 othmir fur caps, 0 trade-skill ups. That's thousands of pp wasted, and countless hours of farming. I'm not trying to complain here, I'm trying to get feedback, anyone else getting totally screwed?

Spent 40k and over a week of solid farming for 10 skill points? At this rate, no I don't have 3-6 months and hundreds of thousands of pp just to get to a reasonable skill level.

Feel free to tell me I'm wrong, if you have experience. Are there times of the day that a skill up is not possible? Am I being targeted? One begins to wonder after wasting a full week of his life for zero reward.

Its called a RNG for a reason. I know at one point i went over 200 combines without a skillup on live.

Were you 255 buffed the whole time. That does make a difference at the higher end. It took us as a guild about a month to get our tailor to max. Just have to stick with it.

EQ tradeskills suck for this very reason. I'd rather have harder to find mats with a better chance to skill up, then clicking a million combines.

lol this is why none of my char's will have 7th shawl's i cant stand tradeskills =/

If you're after a shawl, just go for the combine. You'll probably get 2-4 fails, but it'll be easier than all that tradeskilling. Or be like me and get it without failing once at 162 tailoring (okay okay, I failed once of the 5x no drop silk combines).

So, the tradeskill skill up calculation pre-2005 does 2 checks to see if you get a skill up. Both checks must be successful for you to get that skill up.

The 1st skill up check is based on your innate stat, the difficulty of the tradeskill, and whether you succeeded or not. The calculation is:

( BASE STAT - SPECIAL TS MOD ) / ( TS DIFFICULTY * FAILURE CHECK )

Base Stat is your WIS/INT or STR/DEX for Blacksmithing/Fletching respectively.
Special TS mod is equal to 0 for Smithing, Fletching and Poisonmaking. Every other TS it is equal to 15.
TS Difficulty is equal to a value between 2-4, Tailoring and Smithing are 2's, Baking and Brewing are 3's, Pottery, Fletching, and JC are 4's
Failure Value is equal to 1 if a success 2 if a failed combine.

This value gives a number, and a roll of 1-100 is performed, if your rolled number is less than the number you have, you pass this check and go to the next check. If your rolled number is greater than the number calculated above the check stops there and you don't get a skill up.

The 2nd skill up check is based on skill. If your TS skill is over 190, then the chance to skill up is a flat 5%. If your TS skill is under 190, then it is (200-SKILL)/2.

SO, an example case. If you are doing Tailoring with 255 INT, at skill of 190:

(255 - 15) / (2*1) = 230/2 = 115. This value exceeds 100, so you will pass the 1st check every time when you succeed the combine. The second check for skill of 190, is a flat 5% chance to skill up so on successful combines you have a 5% chance to succeed.

(255 - 15) / (2*2) = 230/4 = 57.5. This value means on 57% of your failed combines you will pass the first check. The second check for skill of 190, is a flat 5% chance to skill up, but you will only get this far 57% of the time. So the calculation is 0.57*0.05 = 2.875% chance to skill up on a failed combine.

Using your above examples:

94 Othmir Furs, with 11 success and 83 failures

11 * 0.05 = 0.55
83 * 0.02875 = 2.38625

Out of that many you were expected to get just under 3 skill ups.

How unlikely is it that you got 0 skill ups?

(0.95)^11 = 56.88% chance to not get any skill ups out of your 11 Successes
(0.97125)^83 = 8.88% chance to not get any skill ups out of your 83 Fails

Yea you just had bad luck :/. This again assumes you're at a Tailoring skill at or over 190, and it assumes you had INT or WIS at 255. If you had a lower INT or WIS when doing combines, the likelihood of you not getting any skill ups raises a lot. If you were lower than 190 Tailoring, the likelihood of not getting skill ups drops a lot.

PS - The EQTraders Calculator is completely different due to changed TS values when they revamped to a skill cap of 300 and with increasing stat caps. I wrote a google doc for this calculation/chance to be used over on another emulated server using old code, let me know if you want to use it for your own knowledge, but the answer at the end of the day is max WIS/INT, try to do combines you will succeed at a maximum rate, and keep combining.

Yeah I spent 3 years and 100k+ to get 215 before Velious. Easily another 100k and a month to max it after Velious dropped. Maxing tailoring is a serious long term and expensive commitment and arguably not worth it anymore after the prices tanked this year. When I worked on cultural, I'd save up batches of 200 combines and be thrilled if I got 15-20 skill ups.

Also, if you're doing super high trivial combines without a resonable chance of success (Velious tailoring with low skill), you're gonna burn through materials without many skill ups.

Does brewing go off strength or Int/Wis, Daldaen. I can't remember.

Int / Wis. Pretty horrible to train on a melee, but doable.