FBSS rarity?
 

Post is getting old, but figured I'd come back and edit it incase anyone using search function digs this up looking for fbss rarity or drop stats or whatever.

I camped frenzy in 2 sessions. First one was 18 hours, killed 108 pops, 7 of which were frenzied ghouls, but just got 7 rings as loot. Second session lasted about 3 hours, killed 17 pops, 4 of which were frenzied ghouls, and the last one of those coughed up the sash for me.

In all honesty, with the rate at which haste belts are rotting in sky you are better off just grinding your melee character to 46 then buying a Sky stone. for 100 and change.

Just my opinion of course, but I think too much time / platinum is wasted on a 1AC zero stat item in classic where most of the mobs you will be fighting have ridiculously low hit-points to begin with.

Anyway, it's hard to judge the true rarity of the item since you are dealing with 3 placeholders that all have the same chance of spawning the frenzied. So basically how many hours you end up spending at that camp is going to depend on how lucky you are with multiple random chances.

I'm leveling my melee character along with a friend's shaman, and it will probably be at least a month before we are level 46, if not longer.

Ridiculously low hp mobs or not, 21% haste on a 1 ac belt obviously has a much, MUCH larger impact on my little rogue's killing potential than any other belt I could get, especially when I'm primarily playing in 2-3 person groups.

The frenzy camp IS kind of nice though, assuming that the average time it would take to drop isn't any longer than it has taken for me so far. You only need to pay attention for like 10-12 minutes out of every 28, which leaves a lot of time to hold the camp and also do some reading/studying/housework in the meantime

It's not hard, it just takes a large amount of data. That's why I submitted my info from what I've done so far and asked about it on here instead of just assuming that my experience is the typical experience :p

Remember, I didn't ask how long it would take for me to get a fbss... I know that random chances mean I might NEVER see one, or that I might see one on my next kill. I asked about the average, ballpark-ish time required to get one.

You the guy I saw selling 8 Moonstone rings? ;)

Yeah. I vendored hem about 20 seconds after I auctioned, haha. No idea what they actually sell for to players, but I'm not one to sit in EC for very long :)

i've seen 3 drop in about a 5 hour span. Luck of the draw man. BTW that whole time I never saw a Frenzied pop on the right side (if you are facing the fountain). Dunno if that one has a lower % chance to spawn Frenzied or if it really is just that random.

It's tough to make good estimates without some assumptions.

Here's a Bayesian method I just used to calculate the probability of getting an FBSS.

We start with a prior probability of getting 1 FBSS every 10 hours (this is arbitrary). Since you had 109 attempts in 18 hours (or 6.1 attempts per hour), that means our expectation rate of FBSS is 1/61.

If you use Laplace's rule of succession and fit a beta distribution to that prior, we get Beta(2,61). This distribution looks like this:

http://i.imgur.com/fe4AJ.jpg

Now, when we include the information that you provided (101 tries, 0 successes) we end up with a Bayesian that looks like this

http://i.imgur.com/LhYbO.jpg

In this one, the blue is the prior probability, the red is your findings, and the gold is the posterior probability. So, this tells you what the FBSS drop rate is most likely to be based on the data available.

Some statistics on that post distribution:

Mode: p -> 0.00606061

Expected value: 0.011976

From this data, I calculate the FBSS rate per bloodthirsty ghoul killed to be 1.20%.

EDIT: Here is a cumulative probability function based on a geometric distribution. The x axis is the number of frenzy/bloodthirsty you kill and the Y axis is the probability of having looted at least 1 FBSS.

http://i.imgur.com/P6fxt.jpg

EDIT: If anyone has more data, I would be happy to throw it in here.

In that case you will need a ton of people responding to this thread.

My guess is that there are somewhere between 600-700 sashes in the game right now.

I'm basing this guess on the number of days the server has been live, rounding down to 400 due to server down time and the first month when the population was low and leveling up. Then I'm guessing that about 1-2 sashes drop on average per day.