Variance (and Skips)
 

I have what I hope will be a simple question about variance. I noticed that the wiki didn't have a page on how variance works, so I tried to make one ... and then realized that I didn't know either (or at least I was unclear about the exact details).

Let's take Lodi (18 hour respawn, 1 hour variance, two potential skips) as an example.

If Lodi was killed at 6:00 PM on Monday, then Lodi could appear anywhere from 17 hours from then (11:00 AM Tuesday) to to 19 hours from then (1:00 PM Tuesday). I think I have that much corect.

But then what if he skips that window: does the 17-19 hours for the next window start from the beginning or end of the first skipped window? Or could it start from anywhere in that time, making the subsequent window a potentially four hour period?

AFAIK it adds +1 hour variance on it (due to him possibly spawning / skipping at any point during the window), so the next would be 16-20 hours from the theoretical middle point.

So then if Lodi was killed at 6PM Monday, and he skips his first two windows, his window on the third (and guaranteed spawn) would be from 3PM Thursday to 9PM Thursday (because each skip added two hours, and the "window center" remains the original kill time)?

correct

Yes, but the statistics of him spawning in the first or last 30mins well...

100% in the last 30 if it’s 3rd window before REEEEE

Thanks for the help all!

I think I understand now, but in fact my example was wrong: if I Lodi is killed ay 6pm on a Monday and skips his first two windows, it seems like his third window should actually be: 9:00 PM (Wednesday) - 3:00 AM (Thursday).

It's all broken down here for future reference: http://wiki.project1999.com/Variance

P.S.

It seems to me the spawns should be concentrated in the middle of the window after skips occur.

Think of it this way: if Lodi is killed at 6pm on a Monday and skips two windows, the only way he could possibly spawn at 9:00 PM Wednesday is if he "spawned" (but not really) at exactly 11:000 AM Tuesday, and then exactly 4:00 AM Wednesday.

But if he spawns at midnight Wednesday, there's many other ways that could happen (eg. he could have spawned at 11:00 AM Tuesday, then 6:00 PM Wednesday, or, 12:00 AM Tuesday then 6:00 PM Wednesday, or ...)

Since there's more possible non-spawn "spawn times" that can lead to times in the middle of the window, it seems like he should be more likely to spawn then.

It'd be interesting to know - what are the chances of him spawning or skipping in the different windows.

i.e. is it a 1/3 chance of him spawning in the 1st window, a 1/3 or 1/2 in the 2nd window, etc.?

Ok, come on now. I know some of you math geeks can do this. Come up with the algebraic expression on the calculation. If they could do it on live for the Party Machine quest, surly one of you can come up with the Lodi spawn ;)