While your evidence is anecdotal...it can be proven that:
Defense is the single most important factor in damage taken. It influences all mitigation. That's why casters have defense that maxes at 200 and not 252.
AC makes a difference, but not a HUGE difference like Defense. I've heard that the first 100 worn AC is much more important than anything after 100 (depending on class also)
Especially for a monk at lower levels, HP >> AC because mend scales with max HP. Best leveling you will find is killing mobs that are ALMOST light blue.
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[52 Disciple] Downgrade (Human) <Azure Guard>
[31 Druid] Edarg (Halfling)
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