[Mandalore93]

Long term I don't see anyone but Jon sitting on the throne. He's also my favorite realistic candidate in terms of the novel. He's very progressive in his thinking. Very practical also.

I love Baelish because of how incredibly clever and opportunistic he is. He comes from nearly the bottom of the barrel (2nd generation noble of the lowest order) and is now Lord-Protector of the Vale, de facto Lord-Paramount of the Riverlands, and holds the (as far as the normal realm knows) heir to the north. Granted Sansa isn't the real heir since Bran and Rickon are alive. Granted if Robb's wishes are heeded then Jon takes precedence over them all seeing as he is the heir to the Kingdom of the North and Riverlands.

In terms of "real life" probability there aren't any true up start stories like his as far as I know in any of the "major" medieval kingdoms. Certainly none that are one generation with that kind of jump. Outside of medieval Europe, China has a few similar stories in Liu Bang (founder of Han) and Sima Yan (Founder of Jin). I also think we're placing a too high notion on the opinion of lords' honor. Historically and in the novels it's pretty clear that they can either be manipulated or bought off a lot of the time. These are two areas that Baelish excels at and he clearly has mad administrative skills to boot. I don't even think his obsession is with his "love" of Catelyn/Sansa but more his utter and complete hatred of being shunned for not being good enough for the nobles.

Only two I can really think of in Europe would be the Tudors (became kings through the female line of a legitimized bastard by killing the King of England at Bosworth Fields - More like Robert Baratheon) and the initial Capetians who I'm pretty sure were the mayors/nobles of Paris after the death of the last Carolingian King. After that almost all major royal lines in Europe come from cadet houses of either Hapsburg or Capetian.