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Originally Posted by Mandalore93
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Long term I don't see anyone but Jon sitting on the throne. He's also my favorite realistic candidate in terms of the novel. He's very progressive in his thinking. Very practical also.
I love Baelish because of how incredibly clever and opportunistic he is. He comes from nearly the bottom of the barrel (2nd generation noble of the lowest order) and is now Lord-Protector of the Vale, de facto Lord-Paramount of the Riverlands, and holds the (as far as the normal realm knows) heir to the north. Granted Sansa isn't the real heir since Bran and Rickon are alive. Granted if Robb's wishes are heeded then Jon takes precedence over them all seeing as he is the heir to the Kingdom of the North and Riverlands.
In terms of "real life" probability there aren't any true up start stories like his as far as I know in any of the "major" medieval kingdoms. Certainly none that are one generation with that kind of jump. Outside of medieval Europe, China has a few similar stories in Liu Bang (founder of Han) and Sima Yan (Founder of Jin). I also think we're placing a too high notion on the opinion of lords' honor. Historically and in the novels it's pretty clear that they can either be manipulated or bought off a lot of the time. These are two areas that Baelish excels at and he clearly has mad administrative skills to boot. I don't even think his obsession is with his "love" of Catelyn/Sansa but more his utter and complete hatred of being shunned for not being good enough for the nobles.
Only two I can really think of in Europe would be the Tudors (became kings through the female line of a legitimized bastard by killing the King of England at Bosworth Fields - More like Robert Baratheon) and the initial Capetians who I'm pretty sure were the mayors/nobles of Paris after the death of the last Carolingian King. After that almost all major royal lines in Europe come from cadet houses of either Hapsburg or Capetian.
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Nice historical context, I knew some of the european stuff but I'll confess I know nothing of Chinese history. Closest I ever got to "studying" the far east was reading about the Daimyo / Shogunate era of Japan, which was interesting, but it's more or less just feudalism + Samurai + Shinto as opposed to feudalism + chivalrous knights + the church.
I agree with you on Jon, he's my favorite realistic candidate for King, despite his numerous faults. I'd love Davos to somehow win, but that obviously has no basis in Westerosi reality.
My main issues with Baelish: yes, he's compelling, yes he's entertaining, and yes he has played the game well. But does anyone really think the man would make a good king? He's willing to start a civil war to advance himself. You're right about his motivations; he feels shunned by the nobility. I think he's aware that had he been the son of a great man, he would've been allowed to marry Catelyn, and more than just being bitter over her, he's bitter over his treatment from Hoster Tully and Brandon Stark. Regardless, bitterness doesn't make a good King. As far as I can see it, if Baelish gets a little bit smarter and a little less vain, he could become the legitimate ruler of the Vale. It would take some work, but he's a talented man, and could make it happen. I think he's going to get himself killed by trying to advance even further, and let's be honest, how could he possibly manipulate the Dornish, the Tyrells, etc, into supporting his claim for the Iron Throne. He could parley Sansa into taking the North and the Riverlands (until Bran/Rickon/Jon appear), but his behavior will inspire no loyalty. He's like Roose Bolton... no one is going to be following him unless they're plotting his overthrow in secret. I'm fairly certain he's advanced as far as he could have possibly hoped to, and it seems like for either lust over Sansa, or for power, he's going to get himself killed.
That said, I don't think Sansa takes him out, at least not in Book 6. I think Baelish is about to get manipulated by a clever girl who learned a lot in King's Landing.