Depends on several factors
1) which guild you join
1A) If you join IB?TMO you will get it faster due to how many kills they get
1B) Class R guilds will be seeing less kills overall
2)How many mages are in your guild. This has to do with DKP or "raid credits". The more you raid the more points you can spend or get priority over others of your class.
3)Are the RNG Gods on your side? Inny doesn't always drop the mage or necro epics and can make it a pain in the ass.
Combine all of these factors and there is a almost guarantee of getting it within a year in IB/TMO. Join a class R guild and you might never get it.
or... 4) wait for fear/hate revamps in the future for increased drops.
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