Thread: FBSS rarity?
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Old 02-02-2011, 03:26 PM
Droodler Droodler is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 46
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It's tough to make good estimates without some assumptions.

Here's a Bayesian method I just used to calculate the probability of getting an FBSS.

We start with a prior probability of getting 1 FBSS every 10 hours (this is arbitrary). Since you had 109 attempts in 18 hours (or 6.1 attempts per hour), that means our expectation rate of FBSS is 1/61.

If you use Laplace's rule of succession and fit a beta distribution to that prior, we get Beta(2,61). This distribution looks like this:

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Now, when we include the information that you provided (101 tries, 0 successes) we end up with a Bayesian that looks like this

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In this one, the blue is the prior probability, the red is your findings, and the gold is the posterior probability. So, this tells you what the FBSS drop rate is most likely to be based on the data available.

Some statistics on that post distribution:

Mode: p -> 0.00606061

Expected value: 0.011976

From this data, I calculate the FBSS rate per bloodthirsty ghoul killed to be 1.20%.

EDIT: Here is a cumulative probability function based on a geometric distribution. The x axis is the number of frenzy/bloodthirsty you kill and the Y axis is the probability of having looted at least 1 FBSS.

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EDIT: If anyone has more data, I would be happy to throw it in here.
Last edited by Droodler; 02-02-2011 at 04:27 PM..