Thanks for the help all!
I think I understand now, but in fact my example was wrong: if I Lodi is killed ay 6pm on a Monday and skips his first two windows, it seems like his third window should actually be: 9:00 PM (Wednesday) - 3:00 AM (Thursday).
It's all broken down here for future reference:
http://wiki.project1999.com/Variance
P.S.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wallicker
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Yes, but the statistics of him spawning in the first or last 30mins well...
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It seems to me the spawns
should be concentrated in the middle of the window after skips occur.
Think of it this way: if Lodi is killed at 6pm on a Monday and skips two windows, the only way he could possibly spawn at 9:00 PM Wednesday is if he "spawned" (but not really) at exactly 11:000 AM Tuesday, and then exactly 4:00 AM Wednesday.
But if he spawns at midnight Wednesday, there's many other ways that could happen (eg. he could have spawned at 11:00 AM Tuesday, then 6:00 PM Wednesday, or, 12:00 AM Tuesday then 6:00 PM Wednesday, or ...)
Since there's more possible non-spawn "spawn times" that can lead to times in the middle of the window, it seems like he should be more likely to spawn then.