[Erati]

Originally Posted by WizardEQ [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

From the Ataria data, there were 57 EE for 152 attempts, so that's 37.5% Let's assume 30% chance of an EE pop.

In those 57 pops, 5 stones dropped which is 8.8%. Let's assume there is a 10% chance of a manastone when the EE pops.

So the chance of a manastone dropping is 10% of 30%, or 0.10 x 0.30, which is 3%.

I think after all of our discussion, this is a pretty good estimate of the drop rate of a manastone at any 28 minute interval.

If we incorporate the binomial distribution, the chance of x manastones dropping in n attempts is:

P(x) = n(C)x * (0.97)^(n-x) * (0.03)^(x) where n(C)x = n!/((n-x)!*x!)

So the probability of 5 manastones dropping in 152 attempts is:

P(5) = 152(C)5 * (0.97)^(152-5) * (0.03)^(5) = 17.5%.


Since there are around 51 attempts in a day, here are the probabilities of the various amounts of manastones dropping within a 24 hour period:

P(0) = 51(C)0 * (0.97)^(51) * (0.03)^(0) = 21.2%.
P(1) = 51(C)1 * (0.97)^(50) * (0.03)^(1) = 33.4%.
P(2) = 51(C)2 * (0.97)^(49) * (0.03)^(2) = 25.8%.
P(3) = 51(C)3 * (0.97)^(48) * (0.03)^(3) = 13.0%.
P(4) = 51(C)4 * (0.97)^(47) * (0.03)^(4) = 4.8%.
P(5) = 51(C)5 * (0.97)^(46) * (0.03)^(5) = 1.4%.
P(6) = 51(C)6 * (0.97)^(45) * (0.03)^(6) = 0.3%.

Therefore, the expected number of manastones in a 24 period would be 1.522.

well done

this all lines up with what I witnessed when camping it, its expected at least 1ish per 24 hour to show up w a Manastone.