Short answer is yes, I think it almost always drops, but this seems to be a post-manastone-nerf change:
Quote:
12/13/99
The Sewn evileye bags come from the evil eye in lower guk (live side) NOT
from xorbb in runneye. The evil eye in lower guk spawns every 32 minutes
(and has a plaseholder sometimes) and now has the bag almost every time.
https://groups.google.com/d/msg/alt....U/_xjARd1QO1IJ
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So I'm not sure you can rely on "reverse engineering the drop rate" like this.