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Originally Posted by douglas1999
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You have a disturbing confidence in what you are being told by the people you already agree with and want to like.
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I'm only replying to you, but it would be the same to the 2-3 others here posting about polls.
I've consistently said Trump has +2 in his back pocket -- that's a 4 point shift. Nate Silver, the Lincoln Project, and several other sources discount the "shy trump voter", but I think it's a real thing until they call NC and FL for Biden 10 minutes out of the gate.
TLP is the closest thing to an echo chamber for me. I'm hoping they're right, but I'm not confident in what they are telling me.
The most reasonable take-away from FiveThirtyEight is this:
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Remember, Trump has a meaningful chance of winning the election, per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)
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Right now the voter turnout looks historically high based on mail-in and early, but who knows what that means during COVID. I also think Trump shook up the modeling here by discrediting mail-in voting to the point that it might motivate chunks from both sides to do the opposite of what they normally would have done.
I want Trump to lose. Think Biden will win a close one electorally. Won't be surprised if Trump wins.