Yikes, your calculations are FAR from scientific! So far that I don't trust your numbers at all, nor would any mathematician.
First, you're assuming that 74% of these attacks came from that weapon by using average percentages which you're basing on what you admit to be assumptions....so it's basically assumptions and averages, and on top of that the sample size is only 249 swings.
On top of that even, you don't know how many of those swings were ripostes. Did the Beastlord have the double riposte AA? If so, his potential number of ripostes increase by 50%.
There are so many unknown variables in those calculations that your margin of error is ridiculous.
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