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Old 02-27-2021, 10:15 PM
jadier jadier is offline
Sarnak


Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 220
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DMN [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
Only know two people dumb enough to camp this piece of trash that I trust:

Moron 1: over 20 hours 100+ couriers, no ring
Moron 2: over 15 hours 60+ courtiers 1 ring.

that's 1 ring in 160+ couriers, well under a 1% drop rate and way under the supposed/estimated 3.5% drop rate on the wiki suggests.
Nope, it's a Poisson process. Think of it like this: flipping a coin twice does not guarantee a heads, even though getting a heads is a 1-in-2 chance. Flipping a coin 4 times and seeing no heads still doesn't mean your coin is "broken".

If you see roughly 400 couriers in a row, that'd be decent evidence that there's something off with a 2% drop chance. Until then, you just have a run of bad luck.