Quote:
Originally Posted by Lune
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Except the US is incapable of reliably evacuating more than a few people out of Taiwan before China locks it down til later in the war or forever.
Neither side would get the physical infrastructure, and China would get the human capital unless literally assassinated by the US.
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nah any major military operation has telltale signs that you can't hide
remember back in 2021 when russia was massing on ukraines border and in belarus, while claiming it's just running drills and manauvers? nobody bought that, so come invasian time even with it's outdated equipment and farmers with store bought rifles, they were able to stave off the offensive long enough for the west to realize russia had bitten off more than it can chew. and that the ukrainian people were tougher than we thought.
its like ~100 miles from mainland china to taiwan across open water, even if missles are flying and planes are bombing, there are still many many ways to get people out. definitely rest assured that the DIA knows which people it wants to bring to this side. they learned their lessons during operation paperclip when they were racing against the soviets to "capture" nazi scientits.
and if it goes tits up, just a single C-17 can launch 45 cruise missles from as far as Korea and take out every fab facility before the chinese can claim a beachhead, which will be very difficult to do because there are less than 12 places on taiwan where a beach landing is even thinkable, and less than 4 weeks per year where the tides won't smash landing craft on the rocky shores that compose most of taiwans coast.
taiwan has pretty much all the same modern military hardware that any NATO nation has, they will mine the shit out of their coast lines, and parachutes make radar light up like a christmas tree
invading taiwan is a super ridiculously tall order that doesn't make sense militarily or economically, it would be an exercise in CCP ego alone.
Xi has never given any indication that ego is enough. They'll rattle the saber all day long of course, they have to keep up the facade that they are a super power.