Quote:
Originally Posted by bcbrown
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Maybe we can simplify the problem even further, and just consider two swings. This is a 16 second fight, meaning the third JBB results in mob death.
Ticks happen at times 0, 6, 12
One swing happens at t=0. If it procs, it does 44 + 24 * 3 or 116 damage
The second swing happens at t=8. If there was no prior proc, it does 44 + 24 * 1 or 68 damage. If there was a prior proc, it does 44 damage.
1) If both swings proc, the total damage is 116 + 44, or 160 damage.
2) If just the first swing procs, the total damage is 116.
3) If just the second swing procs, the total damage is 68.
4) If neither swing procs, the total damage is 0.
Case 1 happens with probability 1/12 * 1/12
Case 2 happens with probability 1/12 * 11/12
Case 3 happens with probability 11/12 * 1/12
Case 4 happens with probability 11/12 * 11/12
The total expected damage is the sum of the expected damage of each of the four cases, weighted by the probability
160 * 1/144 + 116 * 11/144 + 68 * 11/144 + 0 * 121/144
The total expected damage is 15.1 in this scenario
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I think I see the disconnect here. You don't seem to realize how nicely the DoT time and the fight time happen to align in my specific example of 53 DPS on a 7000 HP mob. The fight lasts 132 seconds, and the DoT lasts 132 seconds if you include the initial DD.
Let's assume we still have the 0.5 PPM (procs per minute) value. A 3 tick fight doesn't have a 0.5 PPM value, because it doesn't last a full minute. You should get 3 swings with the hammer if the fight lasts 18 seconds. You'll hit initially, and once after each JBB cast. Our example assumed we swing 6 times per minute, which is how we got the 1/12. This means you have a 0.5 x 0.5 chance to proc = 25% chance to proc per fight. The number is a bit weird here because you swing as soon as you turn on auto attack.
Damage per tick set based on when the weapon procs: [0 damage (no proc), 40 (0 ticks), 64 (1 tick), 88 (2 ticks), 112 (3 ticks)] / 5 = 60.8 x (0.5 PPM x 0.5) = 15.2 damage (the value you got)
Damage per tick set based on when the weapon procs: [0, 40, 64, 88, 112, 136, 160, 184, 208, 232, 256, 280, 304, 328, 352, 376, 400, 424, 448, 472, 496, 520, 544] / 23 = (279 x 0.5 PPM) x 2.0 = 279 damage, or 2.1 DPS (the damage value I got)
Now obviously the DoT in my fight will last 2 ticks less on average, since I am not meleeing for the first 2 ticks. But the real PPM is 0.65, and we are ignoring the white damage, so in reality 2.2 DPS is a very reasonable number, it is probably closer to 3 DPS.