I ran two experiments on my 54 cleric, one with 195 worn ac and one with 132 worn ac. Both had the full cleric buff line with ~64 ac. Here's the
magelo. I'd fight Shiel Glimmerspindle, a level 40 rogue, until I had 4-500 hp, then root, CH, re-engage. I'd do that until oom, then root, atone, med up.
On the first experiment I took snapshots at 755 and 1399 hits before concluding the experiment with 1983 hits. Here's the hit distribution for those snapshots:
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Some statistics on the full experiment:
Hit%: 55.6%
Average hit: 42.4
Average hit excluding min value: 51.0
Min hit %: 26.8%
The hit chart does not look normally distributed. Excluding the minimum hit, the rest of the DI intervals each had around 3-5% of the total number of hits, with an average of 29 hits per interval. Here's a chart showing each interval as a ratio of the 29 average number per interval:
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The ratios for the full experiment ranged from 80% to 125%. So still pretty noisy but it does look like a uniform distribution is a better fit than a normal distribution.
For the second experiment I took 1150 total hits.
Hit%: 58.4%
Average hit: 48.5
Average hit excluding min/max value: 50.6%
Min hit %: 19.3%
Max hit %: 12.7%
And here's the chart:
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