Well, there's evidence on the ZAM site:
Apr 02 2001 - 2 out of 4
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In about 10 hours of camping the spot we received the mage burning embers 2 times, the cloak 2 times, and the bard guts almost every other time
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Dec 28 2000 - 2 out of 5
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We dropped him 5 times tonight - cloak twice, zip the other 3. No embers at all...
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Dec 15 2000 - 2 out of 3
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But out of killing it 3 times I have gotten nothign the first time, and a the Wurm Scale Coat the other 2 times.
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Just picked the first 3 I saw, starting at the bottom of the post.
So drop rate reported was 50%, 40%, and 66%. An average of 52% droprate. That's not really that rare.