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Aegon cannot be true if Tyrion is a Targaryen. There is enough evidence for that scenario in my mind, and enough for Aegon to be false, ie mummer's dragon among others (Dunk and Egg), that I think we can discount Aegon being a Targaryen. The dragon always has three heads. Jon, Dany, Tyrion. Being a Blackfyre would be interesting. If the Targaryens were extinguished, wouldn't that still make him the "true" heir to the throne, according to the oldest houses who derive their power from the Targaryens? Dany is not immortal and GRRM has a great predilection for chaos, blood, and twists. But really what I think is that Dorne will declare for Aegon and they will war with what remains of the military of the Kingdom on the Iron Throne. They will fight each other to a bloody, attritional standstill while Winter falls and the Others begin their march south from the shattered Wall and Jon Connington turns to stone, and the religious orders divide and destroy the realm from within.
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As I've said earlier in the thread I am in the Aegon is a Blackfyre camp, which by extension could imply that Varys is a Blackfyre rather than a Targaryen as you have suggest earlier in the thread. I have my doubts that Illyrio and Varys' end game focuses around Dany; it would have required some incredible foresight regarding Viserys' death and Dany's rise to power, and even if they were originally planning on using Viserys as a puppet figurehead the appearance of Aegon changes (for us) what appears to be the focus of their end game. Although if Varys is a powerful magic user of some variety (and your points on this have made me think in this direction) maybe he did know. Certainly destabilisation of the realm was their long term goal, from the conversation Arya overhead in GoT, although whether it may be in aid of the Others (speculation) or simply creating the right conditions for their own chance to take over remains to be seen.
Also a fan of Tyrion being a Targaryen.