Quote:
Originally Posted by magnetaress
[You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
So potentially 11 hrs for 100% drop. Vs potentially 88 hrs for 100%?
We are likely looking more at the mean, so more likely 6-7 hrs vs 40-50 hrs.
|
Yes, we are definitely looking at the mean. There is never a 100% chance of something dropping in a given time period.
Beware the Gambler’s Fallacy: the idea that previous outcomes influence future outcomes.
Suppose you flipped a coin 99 times and it came up heads every time. What is the likelihood of tails on the next flip? 50/50.
Suppose you camped a mob with a 10% chance to spawn and got 9 placeholders. What is the likelihood of a named on the next pop? 10%.
A lot of people at the manastone camp didn’t understand this, or refused to accept it. Past outcomes do not change the odds of a future outcome, ever.