I think it depends on how he is willing to fight. I’m fairly certain if he decides to just level the city with rockets he stands no chance to lose. But if you didn’t think he’s facing war crime charges before, Hooooo boy will be after doing that
Supposedly he’s only been able to advance during the day because his army has sub-par gear including a lack of night vision equipment. If he can get that to his army (who’s to say China doesn’t help with weapons or costs just not outwardly?) and they can push 24/7, he’ll also surely win
If China doesn’t assist with weapons or funding, he’s not willing to just turn the capital into a parking lot, and continues to only push during the day, there’s a small chance he can lose I guess
He doesn’t have to take the city, just try to do enough damage to entice the president to get into a peace talk that favors Putin. But the Ukrainian pres found his balls and discovered they’re made of brass, so he might continue to decline that
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