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Originally Posted by JurisDictum
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So I've been thinking about North Korea a lot ever since I said Trump would invade Iran or N. Korea (shortly after his inauguration). What do you guys think? Is it possible that Trump is a lucky son of a bitch that has a good war to fight?
This assumes that China can somehow be weathered or dealt with. But someday the sick North Korean regime needs to be overthrown -- And I don't think China has the heart to spend their money on it. It would probably take a bold careless ass like Trump to do it too.
Or do people here think that it would be horrible to use our big bad ass military to overthrow the only totalitarian Stalinist regime left?
Nice quick superficial article on N. Korea options: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...41510?lo=ap_e1
The article, if read correctly, shows why N. Korea was correct to build up their military as big as possible. It also demonstrates why having nuclear bombs would be advantages from a North Korean defensive perspective. It is the only thing that deters us from overthrowing the regime at minimal cost (in the context of hugely expensive wars costs...).
If N. Korea is allowed to get a modernized nuclear arsenal -- we will never be able to overthrow that regime and reunite the Koreans. There is also a possibility of a Hitler like antagonist arising from the country one day. |
As a failed state it has to go sometime. Within our lifetimes we will absolutely see regime change.
I believe the US is committed to Chinese interests in the region and will not act unilaterally without just cause.
Most likely scenario (based off the history of the last 100-150 years) is that a false-flag strike will be leveled at Guam or a U.S. warship, and then the air-strike campaign outlined on CNN will commence taking out all North Korean artillery capability. It will be a strike limited in scope and limited in its action at first.
At some point after that, cruise missile bombardment will commence against the North Korean military's critical infrastructure. It will be the largest cruise missile bombardment to date, surpassing the Libyan bombardment of over 200 missiles. It will be relentless and very precise. This will be a Syria/Libya style intervention with China standing by. Congress will not be involved as there is no war.
How North Korea responds to the cruise missile bombardment will depend on whether China invades. Prior to all this China will have secretly been preparing to seize control of North Korea all along. They have a strong national security interest in maintaining a separate buffer state, as well as gaining territory in the region. China's boots will be on the ground in North Korea, at some point in our lifetimes should a diplomatic solution not be reached.
A united Korea will never happen in our lifetime.