My theory is that the drop % align closely with the # of classes that want that gear. So there are 5 plate classes (War, SK, Pal, Bard, Cleric), 4 silk (enc, mag, nec, wiz), 3 chain (rog, rng, sham) and 2 leather (druid, monk). This aligns closely with my experience in HOT, albeit some days the RNG makes it feel different.
I think partly you have an issue of selection bias though. Most guilds have very high demand for leather because of the number of monks out there, especially compared to SKs and Pals. So Plate feels like it drops way more because its basically warriors, clerics, and bards competing over it.
The real issue that I've seen is chain, since both the tunic and greaves are basically BIS for all three classes that can wear, but I've seen a decent drop rate over time for chain.
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