BTW -- I hate to say it but the stay late strategy does pay:
https://assets.realclear.com/files/2...4_Deutsche.pdf
There are a lot of people losing months and months of RoR atm.
Quote:
Cycle is late but timing of the next recession far from certain: stay long
late cycle basket pair up 12% in 2017 and 10% in 2018.
The labor market
tightened beyond the natural rate and the cycle entered the late cycle
stage in early 2017 in our view. The late cycle basket long/short pair
(DBUSLATL/DBUSLATS) rose 12% in 2017 and held up very well in 2018
returning another 10%, with only small and limited pullbacks over this
entire period. In our base case that the cycle still has legs we see the late
cycle basket continuing to outperform. Moreover, given its focus on high
quality, prudent and cheap companies it has historically continued to rise
even during end cycle phases (albeit not as much as the end cycle basket
itself). Indeed we note that even through the severe market sell-off from
October to December, the late cycle baskets rallied. So from a risk reward
perspective, with the timing of the next recession far from certain, we
prefer being in the late cycle baskets
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