Could "luck" increase probability?

[EchoedTruth]

The talk of the RNG (random number generator) on the other thread here got me wondering... with probability being such a fickle thing; could one's inherent "will" or expectation of results influence and/or collapse probability into reality?

I, over my time in P99, became known for being very lucky with drops. It got to the point where I was expecting to roll at least over an 80, and would not be surprised to win even 1/3 or more drops in a night (in a 6 man grp).

So that's what I'm wondering... could "luck" or "willpower" or whatever you call it cause probability to tip in your favor? Whereas "unlucky" folks expect to lose.. and ergo do so more often?

Any theoretical physicists are welcome to chime in here ^_^

[August]

No, not exactly.

There are theories out there that when probabilistic events occur all outcomes happen simultaneously yet we are allowed to observe but the one, fragmenting our universe into infinite planes.

If you were some sort of dimensional lord then perhaps you're just picking the outcome where you win constantly, perhaps subconsciously.

A more realistic explanation would be on rooted in implementation of the RNG. Once again, I have no idea how random is generated in EQ land as I haven't looked at the source, but it's possible, depending on your hardware of your machine and other factors that could be used to seed a generator, that your unique combination of credentials could lead to higher rolls on a modulo 100.

Extremely unlikely, but possible.

[nilbog]

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[Alarti0001]

Originally Posted by nilbog [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

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Win

[Ephi]

Originally Posted by August [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

No, not exactly.

There are theories out there that when probabilistic events occur all outcomes happen simultaneously yet we are allowed to observe but the one, fragmenting our universe into infinite planes.

If you were some sort of dimensional lord then perhaps you're just picking the outcome where you win constantly, perhaps subconsciously.

A more realistic explanation would be on rooted in implementation of the RNG. Once again, I have no idea how random is generated in EQ land as I haven't looked at the source, but it's possible, depending on your hardware of your machine and other factors that could be used to seed a generator, that your unique combination of credentials could lead to higher rolls on a modulo 100.

Extremely unlikely, but possible.

We use the Sony method.

PHP Code:

function random(){
    return 47;
} 


[fadetree]

Start with a few lucky wins in a row. You and your friends remark on your luckiness, which then sets up an observational bias. Subsequent 'wins' are then given more weight than subsequent losses are, and your legend grows.

There is no known mechanism by which your interior state actually influences external events, and it's been extensively tested for. There's plenty of evidence of your internal state being able to influence your PERCEPTION of events however, and since we all experience what we think we do, that's often as good as actual physical influence.

[Ele]

Your theory sounds like a Longshot.

[EchoedTruth]

Originally Posted by Ele [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Your theory sounds like a Longshot.

^ good 4 the lulz

and lol nilbog / Ephi

[EchoedTruth]

I guess my point is that - with all the possibilities and factors that play into results of a certain kind (even something as simple as winning a roll), extenuating factors could tip the tide and compound probability into being much more likely for one person than the other. What August said in a way, I guess.

Probably a question more for those in theoretical mathematics/physics than compsci people :>

[Splorf22]

One of the things that people don't understand is that even though the probability of any particular random event may be low, with enough iterations it will occur. Imagine that everyone in the United States flips a coin. If you flip heads, you are out. If you flip tails, you can stay in. Now suppose we repeat this process 25 times. The probability of flipping a coin tails 25 times in a row is 1:35 million roughly, so there will be some 5-10 people left. These people will then go on Oprah and write books about their fantastic skills at coin flipping.

So if you have a thousand people on the server someone is going to get utterly fucked by the RNG at some point. Someone somewhere is getting 10 charm breaks in a minute, going 0-20 on fungi tunics (wait, that's me), getting 5 mez resists in a row on LB mobs, etc. And conversely someone is having great luck. It's just the way of things, the way of the force.