Game Mechanics: Feign Death Success Rate

[Haynar]

Originally Posted by Kender [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

my table was wrong. had 1 too many .65 per line. but if you changed the second fd change to 50% the actual probability to be forgotten changes

1= 0.35 (1-.65)
2= 0.67 (1-.65*.5)

so you have a 67% chance to effect a mem blur if you fd twice

Your first table was correct result wise. The total chance of being remembered would be this, based on number of flops.

1 = 65
2 = 42.3
3 = 27.5
4 = 17.9
5 = 11.6
6 = 7.5
7 = 4.9
8 = 3.2
9 = 2.1

That deviates already at 2 attempts, where they said it would have a 50% chance.

So I went with increasing rate of success, following repeat failures. Overall it works out to be pretty similar.

H