Raid Changes

[SupaflyIRL]

Mob has spawn time of 90 hours with 10 hour variance. At 100 hours everyone will leave and come back for the (second) late window spawn (which was your initial concern).

You're just putting your initial problem off another 24 (48, 72, etc) hours and hoping people get tired of coming back for the repeated late windows. So now instead of only having one opportunity for a late window sock you're allowing for multiple ones, which I'm sure won't make the already uncooperative guilds more antsy and inclined to ensure they are the ones that get the mob after waiting at the altar a couple times.

[Ele]

Originally Posted by Slave [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The problem with variance is not only that it is not Classic, it is that it has led to a completely untenable situation in high end raiding whereby the largest guilds have a disproportionate amount of power to find and kill bosses.

It's just not Classic, and it's been shown to be very obviously flawed in almost every respect. Your solution speaks nothing to the real issues that variance creates, and I find the whole situation quite insulting to the player base.

It is obvious that variance is not classic. However the server staff have already made clear their position about variance, so at this point we have to work within that paradigm. Xasten isn't trying to promote this above a classic spawn pattern, but working within the sandbox that the server staff have chosen to let us play in.

This is a rather simple check within the variance code that would discourage socking at the end of windows by throwing in the uncertainty of being there beyond a set time limit.

[Alarti0001]

Originally Posted by Splorf22 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

BTW a more serious raid proposal: make all raid bosses spawn every day at 7:30PM EST (well a few spawns at different times for our aussie/euro folks). Each mob drops 1/7 of its normal loot table. Everyone has a blast.

Your idea is not terrible IMO but it reminds me of our government trying to fix our excess of debt by going into more debt. Variance is the problem, not the solution.

730 is too early for PST players ! 9pmest at the earliest!.
Either way Velious is the solution. If you hate socking go test those quests.

[Elements]

Id rather see some variation of raid mobs DT the entire zone upon spawning and banish anyone who enters their zone who hasnt been logged into that toon for at least 25 minutes. Fix socking and camping out toons at the same time and bring us back to classic raid mobilization.

[Handull]

Originally Posted by Frieza_Prexus [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I've done some quick back-of-a-napkin probability calculations, and this scheme, in the long run if my math is correct, will not appreciably affect the number of pops per month of any given mob. Even if it did, I suggest that the one less Trak spawn a year might be worth it for fewer FTE bonanzas.

doesn't take any calculation to see that any chance to make the mob spawn later, with no chance to spawn sooner, will cause less spawns per unit time.

one solution is rogean should just change the variance code without telling anyone. (maybe tell nilbog, but dont tell the gms). change it so the windows are just a bit smaller than they are now, maybe even make the different targets have slightly different windows. it would take a while for people to catch on to the change, and in that time socking will be way down because it will just seem like random luck that mobs haven't been going super late in window lately. when people start to figure it out, change it again.

or we could, ya know, start to all get along. make an agreement not to sock b4 so many hours are left in the window, agree to just roll for a super late window mob rather than fight for fte, or think of some other solution that doesn't involve crying for rogean to fix the problem.

[SupaflyIRL]

Originally Posted by Ele [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

This is a rather simple check within the variance code that would discourage socking at the end of windows by throwing in the uncertainty of being there beyond a set time limit.

What I'm saying, however, is that there is no uncertainty, it just extends the sock and offers multiple late window opportunities for each mob.

The only way using variance would stop socking is to have spawns triggered in such a way that variance has an undetermined endpoint using statistics to try to achieve the same number of kills per week/month/year instead of a window. I'm not going to bother doing the math but on a one week spawn it would look more like:

Day 1-5: 0% chance per 30 minutes to spawn
day 5: 1% chance to spawn every 30 mins
day 6: 2% chance every 30 mins

etc. and have no cap, but after a certain number of days have a fixed percentage to spawn. This would more faithfully randomize the spawn than having a set window then increasing the set window by a set amount at a set percentage.

[Alarti0001]

Originally Posted by Elements [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Id rather see some variation of raid mobs DT the entire zone upon spawning and banish anyone who enters their zone who hasnt been logged into that toon for at least 25 minutes. Fix socking and camping out toons at the same time and bring us back to classic raid mobilization.

Hard part is, people EXP in KC, SEB, EJ, SF, TD, DL etc etc.

[Slave]

Originally Posted by Ele [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

However the server staff have already made clear their position about variance, so at this point we have to work within that paradigm

It is only Rogean. And alarmingly, his illogical insistence on this only starts to make sense if you consider certain strange and shady scenarios. Occam is cutting himself somewhere.

[Ele]

Originally Posted by SupaflyIRL [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Mob has spawn time of 90 hours with 10 hour variance. At 100 hours everyone will leave and come back for the (second) late window spawn (which was your initial concern).

You're just putting your initial problem off another 24 (48, 72, etc) hours and hoping people get tired of coming back for the repeated late windows. So now instead of only having one opportunity for a late window sock you're allowing for multiple ones, which I'm sure won't make the already uncooperative guilds more antsy and inclined to ensure they are the ones that get the mob after waiting at the altar a couple times.

No boss here has a 10 hour variance, they range from 18, 24, and 48 hour variances.

The chances that a mob goes to the last 10% of its window is already low, on top of that it would be highly discouraging to those wanting to sock something out that last 2-5 hours to have a coin flip that it could be another 24 hours, and yet another coin flip to extend again.

The reason socking is prevalent at this point (keeping in mind the variance as implemented is not classic) is because you know that the boss will spawn for sure within that rapidly closing window. The addition of FTE rules also further encourages sitting on spawn points for the FTE lottery win.

[Frieza_Prexus]

Originally Posted by SupaflyIRL [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Mob has spawn time of 90 hours with 10 hour variance. At 100 hours everyone will leave and come back for the (second) late window spawn (which was your initial concern).

You're just putting your initial problem off another 24 (48, 72, etc) hours and hoping people get tired of coming back for the repeated late windows. So now instead of only having one opportunity for a late window sock you're allowing for multiple ones, which I'm sure won't make the already uncooperative guilds more antsy and inclined to ensure they are the ones that get the mob after waiting at the altar a couple times.

Not exactly. The mob would have an equal chance at spawning at ANY point during each independent window extension. IE: during window one it could spawn at 1 second in or at the last second.

Yes, there are "blocks" where a staggered sock is, in theory, possible. However, the idea is that the % chance at an extension is conducted at some point when the timer is between 75% and 85% completion, AND the first timer extension has a 50% chance of occurring (or tweaked to some reasonable % so as to make socking unprofitable). These combined raised the level of uncertainty to a point so that socking becomes immensely unprofitable.

Also:

Originally Posted by Frieza_Prexus

Should this new window reach between 75% and 85% completion, the check is repeated with a 25% chance at a 12 to 14 hour extension to the current window randomly placing the mob's spawning within the new window of 25% to 15% of current time left +12 hours. This 2nd 12 hour check may repeat indefinitely.