Iksar Shaman - Solo Challenges?

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by Troxx [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Bcbrown is literally running circles around you cognitively - and is doing so in calmly and coherently. It’s like an intellectual cage fight featuring Neil Degrasse Tyson vs a highschool dropout.

"DeathsSilkyMist is literally running circles around you cognitively - and is doing so in calmly and coherently. It’s like an intellectual cage fight featuring Neil Degrasse Tyson vs a highschool dropout."

There, I type the same thing. We are at an impasse.

Now, back to the actual discussion, where you have handily lost because you have no evidence backing up your position, and have agreed with me on most of my points already. You have also spent most of your time troll posting in an attempt to score points because of how badly you are losing.

For those interested in the truth and the actual discussion: https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=311

Originally Posted by Troxx [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

#WizardNukesTotallyRelevant

Yes. Mathematically speaking Wizard Nukes do more DPS in a short time interval, and less DPS over a long time interval. Directly comparing short time interval averages with long time interval averages is nonsensical in this scenario.

FSI operates under the same principle. It's benefit comes from a short time interval, not a long time interval. You cannot compare the long time interval benefits of FSI to the short time interval benefit of Iksar/Troll Regeneration. You would compare likes, which is the short time interval benefit of FSI to the short time interval benefit of Iksar/Troll Regeneration.

[bcbrown]

Reposting my conclusions:

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

There's a 1 in 6 chance of a stun happening pre-slow.
If there's a slow, the expected damage is 171.
There's a 3/17 chance the expected damage is either 320 or 448.

This means the worst case will happen around .1725 * 3/17 or 3% of the time.

Comparing short-time intervals, which I happen to think is mostly irrelevant (as pointed out by Jimjam), but has been requested:

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Expected damage saved pre-slow by FSI overall:
82.75% of the time: none
17.25% of the time: 133

Total:
0 * .8275 + 133 * .1725 = 22.9425

This analysis can be improved by incorporating a resist rate for Turgur's, and by replacing the use of DPS with a damage distribution that incorporates the possibility of a damage spike far exceeding average DPS.

If, for example, there's a 10% chance of actual damage being twice DPS over the relevant time period, I think there would be a 0.3% chance of 600+ damage.

To build a damage distribution from a log file, first filter out all lines except where you take damage. Then, for each line, remove everything except the timestamp and the damage taken. To bin the data, first choose a bin size. Reasonable possibilities could be 10 seconds or one minute. Transform the timestamp using the bin size, e.g. at ten seconds, turn 10:53:43 into 10:53:4. Group the data by bin, and compute the total damage by summing all the entries.

Now you have your observed damage distribution. To construct a modeled distribution, first choose the model; normal seems likely to fit. Then use a software package to calculate the best-fit for the model and confirm it's a good fit with a couple statistical tests. I'd have to further research this part, but https://www.datanovia.com/en/lessons...ribution-in-r/ seems like a good tutorial in R.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Reposting my conclusions:
...

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Expected damage saved pre-slow by FSI overall:
82.75% of the time: none
17.25% of the time: 133

Total:
0 * .8275 + 133 * .1725 = 22.9425

This continues to be incorrect, as you are comparing incompatible time intervals of FSI and Iksar/Troll Regen. Simply ignoring this fact will not change that you are incorrect. FSI when it triggers will save hundreds of damage using your own calculations, and this is supported by the videos I have provided. Claiming a WW Dragon only does 23 damage when it hits you while unslowed in an individual fight has already been disproven by the video evidence I have posted.

Again, a simple analogy to your "conclusion" is you are claiming Icy Spear of Solist only does 13 DPS when spamming it within 1 minute, because Icy Spear of Solist does 13 DPS when spamming it within an hour. It is trivial to disprove such an argument. Continuing to double down on this is not helping your position.

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Comparing short-time intervals, which I happen to think is mostly irrelevant (as pointed out by Jimjam), but has been requested:

This is the problem. You are missing the entire point. You are trying to compare how much damage FSI reduces within an hour, to try and make it analogous to Iksar/Troll Regen. This doesn't work, because the purpose of FSI is not to save you recovery time. It prevents damage spikes in a short period of time, which are the most dangerous situation a Shaman can be in. It is the same reason why you choose Vindi BP over Fungi Tunic. A random chance to reduce a damage spike in an individual fight is superior to a small consistent regeneration bonus.

[bcbrown]

The far more interesting result is that there's a roughly 3% chance of taking 300+ extra damage in the first 17 seconds of a fight for shamans who lack FSI.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The far more interesting result is that there's a roughly 3% chance of taking 300+ extra damage in the first 17 seconds of a fight for shamans who lack FSI.

Correct. This is why FSI is better for Torpor Shamans. A 3% chance to reduce 300+ extra damage is more useful than a ~0% chance to survive the fight with 24 HP remaining (3 ticks of Iksar/Troll Regeneration), and it is better than saving 1-2 minutes of recovery time per hour on a class that can fully recover in 3 minutes or less. It is the same reason why Torpor Shamans pick Vindi BP over Fungi Tunic. Vindi BP is more likely to reduce a random damage spike, which can save your life.

[bcbrown]

A reasonable opinion, and one that I mostly share, especially for anyone whose endgame gameplay is mostly soloing.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

A reasonable opinion, and one that I mostly share

I appreciate that you generally agree. Unlike the opinions of someone like Troxx, I have backed up my conclusions with evidence, facts, math, and logic. This elevates it above a simple opinion.

Trying to reduce all conversations down to equal opinions in an attempt to throw out all evidence, facts, math, and logic is simply an underhanded debate tactic, and you are doing a disservice to yourself by continuing to do this.

[Troxx]

If 300 extra damage (which we are calculating as a 3% probability chance) is not something you are capable of handling at the start of the fight, perhaps you should improve your gameplay. Nobody has stated that the possibility for the perfect storm doesn’t exist or that FSI has no value.

My stance has always been and remains that you overestimate and place too much emphasis on its actual value.

Coincidentally my shaman has 338hp less than your shaman, over 500 less mana and about 275 less ac than your shaman. See the magelo below. Weirdly, despite having this massive gear based handicap I have not struggled with any of these encounters.

Maybe I’m just better at playing shaman? I don’t happen to think I am particularly talented with the class compared to most dedicated shaman mains.

Maybe the likelihood we are assuming to be 3% is actually lower and therefore I have never once experienced it … and that few if any ever statistically would?

Food for thought.

https://wiki.project1999.com/Magelo_Blue:Jolav

https://wiki.project1999.com/Magelo_Blue:Shamwowi

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by Troxx [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If 300 extra damage (which we are calculating as a 3% probability chance) is not something you are capable of handling at the start of the fight, perhaps you should improve your gameplay. Nobody has stated that the possibility for the perfect storm doesn’t exist or that FSI has no value.

My stance has always been and remains that you overestimate and place too much emphasis on its actual value.

Coincidentally my shaman has 338hp less than your shaman, over 500 less mana and about 275 less ac than your shaman. See the magelo below. Weirdly, despite having this massive gear based handicap I have not struggled with any of these encounters.

Maybe I’m just better at playing shaman? I don’t happen to think I am particularly talented with the class compared to most dedicated shaman mains.

Maybe the likelihood we are assuming to be 3% is actually lower and therefore I have never once experienced it … and that few if any ever statistically would?

Food for thought.

https://wiki.project1999.com/Magelo_Blue:Jolav

https://wiki.project1999.com/Magelo_Blue:Shamwowi

You are just going back to the same "racials aren't necessary" point, which everybody agrees with and has never been contested in this thread by anybody that I am aware of. I have never contested this point either.

You are also trying to score points with the "you are a bad player" nonsense. This isn't a valid argument, and I didn't say I needed FSI to win fights.

You are desperately trying to avoid the simple fact that Shaman racials being unecessary is irrelevant to which one is objectively the best out of the set of racials a Shaman can have. You can objectively determine which racial is best, and also agree that no racial is necessary for a Shaman. These are not mutually exclusive.

If you want to claim that Iksar/Troll Regeneration is objectively better than FSI, you need to provide more than silly gifs, insults, fallacious arguments, and fake medical diagnoses.

[bcbrown]

Originally Posted by Troxx [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Maybe the likelihood we are assuming to be 3% is actually lower and therefore I have never once experienced it … and that few if any ever statistically would?

You can cut it in half simply by recognizing that since DPS is an average, you can expect below-average periods of damage taken half the time. Another area of over-estimation is assuming the first slow is always resisted - I expect the actual resist rates to be closer to 10-20%, but honestly don't know.

Another flaw is assuming that stuns occur stochasticallly. They actually can only occur once every 8(?) seconds, which is plenty of time to get Malo or slow in. In one of the three videos, the first bash attempt lands right as Malo is about to finish casting. A high-skill non-ogre shaman could perhaps find out exactly where to stand a little further back such that you can get Malo off before the first bash. Then, you'll have 8 seconds to get Turgur's off before the next possible bash attempt, which with a gcd clicky should be plenty of time.

A completely different approach would be to observe that a successful stun adds 2-7 seconds to the pre-slow encounter, which is room for what, two rounds of attacks? This approach would conclude that the expected damage taken in the case of a successful stun is double the damage probability distribution.

I certainly don't have any confidence that the 3% figure corresponds to any real-world outcomes. It's merely a first attempt at providing DSM with the quantitative analysis he so desperately wants but is unable to produce, and I wouldn't be surprised if incorporating these areas of improvement we can reduce that figure by an order of magnitude.

All abstract analysis needs to be gut-checked by real-world improvement; if the two do not comport, it's a sign that the analysis is incomplete. This is why the motto of my alma mater is “Lehr und Kunst” or “Theory and Practice;” all theory must be tempered by practice, lest you find yourself completely divorced from reality.