Memblur chance felt broken back when I played which is why I made that post 4 years ago. It sounds like it still is. However what I posted in that thread was accurate for PoP era and short any more substantial evidence of a chance, that is how it should function on P99.
A much more substantial issue however is that the memblur component from a mez spell should only trigger when the spell initially lands. Refreshing mez on a target should not trigger the memblur component again. You need to either wait for the mez to wear off and then recast the mez or you need to overwrite that mez with another mez spell (IE Mesmerize for Dazzle). But that brings up another long standing issue with enchanter mesmerize spell overwriting not functioning properly on P99.
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