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Old 02-28-2021, 06:42 AM
DMN DMN is offline
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Join Date: May 2016
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Albanwr [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
so if I kill 10 and get 3 rings that means what to you?
Those results would, too, suggest that 3.5% isn't accurate and/or that the drop rate has been changed for some reason.


Quote:
Originally Posted by jadier [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
Nope, it's a Poisson process. Think of it like this: flipping a coin twice does not guarantee a heads, even though getting a heads is a 1-in-2 chance. Flipping a coin 4 times and seeing no heads still doesn't mean your coin is "broken".

If you see roughly 400 couriers in a row, that'd be decent evidence that there's something off with a 2% drop chance. Until then, you just have a run of bad luck.
The problem here is how you qualify "decent evidence", especially given the original source of the "expected average". To me, when it comes to random nobodies' claims on the internet, beyond 1 standard deviation I start to expect some some bullshit is afoot and virtually assured of it by the time I get anywhere near 2.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBardo [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
DMN has made 2887 posts, every one of them terrible, yet i keep clicking em
Oh, we both know why you read all my posts with bated breath.
 


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