Iksar Shaman - Solo Challenges?

[bcbrown]

Originally Posted by Troxx [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Maybe the likelihood we are assuming to be 3% is actually lower and therefore I have never once experienced it … and that few if any ever statistically would?

You can cut it in half simply by recognizing that since DPS is an average, you can expect below-average periods of damage taken half the time. Another area of over-estimation is assuming the first slow is always resisted - I expect the actual resist rates to be closer to 10-20%, but honestly don't know.

Another flaw is assuming that stuns occur stochasticallly. They actually can only occur once every 8(?) seconds, which is plenty of time to get Malo or slow in. In one of the three videos, the first bash attempt lands right as Malo is about to finish casting. A high-skill non-ogre shaman could perhaps find out exactly where to stand a little further back such that you can get Malo off before the first bash. Then, you'll have 8 seconds to get Turgur's off before the next possible bash attempt, which with a gcd clicky should be plenty of time.

A completely different approach would be to observe that a successful stun adds 2-7 seconds to the pre-slow encounter, which is room for what, two rounds of attacks? This approach would conclude that the expected damage taken in the case of a successful stun is double the damage probability distribution.

I certainly don't have any confidence that the 3% figure corresponds to any real-world outcomes. It's merely a first attempt at providing DSM with the quantitative analysis he so desperately wants but is unable to produce, and I wouldn't be surprised if incorporating these areas of improvement we can reduce that figure by an order of magnitude.

All abstract analysis needs to be gut-checked by real-world improvement; if the two do not comport, it's a sign that the analysis is incomplete. This is why the motto of my alma mater is “Lehr und Kunst” or “Theory and Practice;” all theory must be tempered by practice, lest you find yourself completely divorced from reality.