Iksar Shaman - Solo Challenges?

[bcbrown]

Originally Posted by DeathsSilkyMist [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Yes, they do. Hit/Miss chance is a coin flip, for example. If the mob has 20 swings per fight, you would do a binomial distribution of 20 coin flips to determine damage done to the player.

Hit/miss is bernoulli/binomial, but the damage itself is a multivariate distribution, as there's a separate calculation of actual damage upon a hit. I've been told that this calculation draws from a uniform set of 20 discrete numbers.

Originally Posted by 7thGate [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

For DD procs, you can just do a straight average of PPM * damage per proc to get expected damage per minute, because the timing doesn't change it at all. This is because with each success valued the same regardless of sequencing, the mean of a binomial distribution is just the probability of success * number of swings, and the PPM system sets the probability of success such that this always comes out to the number of PPM.

This is not the case with a DOT proc because every proc is not equally valuable, you have to calculate the contribution each branch makes to the average individually and sum them to get the correct average. BCBrown is correct in his analysis. I have no idea why you're just averaging the timing and assuming that's correct when there's a nonlinear impact from the different samples in the distribution.