What's your "I have the worst luck" EQ moment(s)?

[moozh]

Originally Posted by Samoht [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

This sample size is no where near what's required to assume the probability is low.

Huh? The % chance of succeeding the combine for a single attempt is ~40%. Probabilities are multiplicative and you can find the % chance associated with failing X attempts based on this.

For one attempt, since the chance of success is 40%, the chance of failure is 60%.

OP decided to queue up five attempts. His chance of failing all five attempts (i.e., not having a single success) is 0.6^5, or 0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6, which is ~0.078%. Pretty close to 1%.

Take for example, another scenario in which his chance of success in one attempt is also 40%, but he queues up 1000 attempts. His chance of success is still 40% on each attempt, but in 1000 attempts there isn’t a 40% chance that he’ll succeed just once. After only a few attempts it becomes less and less probable that he’ll continue to fail every attempt.