A Statistical analysis of Charm Duration

[Goregasmic]

Disclaimer: I suck@stats so honest questions here.

Outside of visualization none of those graphs are helpful?

What are we trying to figure out here exactly?

I understand average isn't very relevant, especially in the context of charm where it is a bit all over the place but isn't the probability of charm breaking kinda useless too?

We already know level and MR are the big variables and outside of tash and mob choice you have no control over those two so the only actionable parameter is charisma if it has any impact at all. Just run a low cha and a high cha dataset, compare average time and then calculate the statistical significance of the difference. We've seen with the AC parsing thread that there's a point where AC completely squelches the mob attack and you get no return for going above a certain point. Since cha is the stat that would matter the least, we'd have to run tests with non trivial mobs and probably no tash to make sure the effect of cha isn't buried by a mob that has an already bottomed out charm resistance.

I'm very curious to see if cha is useful for charm but we do know cha has a significant impact on lull and that spell is integral to the chanter life so unless you're grouping all the time you'll want maxed cha no matter what, especially knowing a lull nerf is coming.

The other thing that is a big deal is mob level difference so for this to be useful you'd have to come up with a chart that shows probability by mob level for a level 60 player. That would show us at what point mobs become non-trivial charm targets. As Loraen shows, I suspect around 50-51.

In the end, outside of curiosity, there's no use to knowing if charm has a 95% or 98% chance to break on tick because on the field it will break when it will break and you'll have to deal with it. And it isn't like you have alternative options to compare efficiency against. The only time where breaking probability would be useful is if you could come up with something like "an ilis shaman has a 80% chance to break in the first 10 ticks" which lets you figure out if that's too unruly for you or not but you'd know that with a cursory glance at the dataset.

I'm not dissing any effort at understanding the game here, these are some of the questions I have relating to charm. I'm currently 59 and I planned on running those tests when I hit 60 because I'd also like some answers too.