Looking for goblin archeologist in Permafrost

[loramin]

Originally Posted by Goregasmic [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

So what do you think is an accurate sample, what's an acceptable margin of error and do you think anyone in their sane mind would ever kill that many?

I'm not a stats geek, but as I understand it, the rule of thumb for a die is to have at least five times as many rolls as the die has sides. In other words, if you wanted to check that a six-sided die rolled "6" one out of six times, you'd need to roll it at least thirty times (and see five "6" results).

If your theory is that A Sarnak Courier drops the ring 2% of the time, that equates to 1 out of 50 rolls of a fifty-sided die. Thus, you'd need to do about 250 (50 * 5) rolls (ie. 250 Courier kills), and see five rings drop, to be reasonably certain that the drop rate was 2%.

Obviously, no one is going to do 250 Courier kills, because no one needs five goblin rings. For cases like that, I think the best anyone can do is start a list on the wiki page, saying something like "Bob: 47 Courier kills until a ring dropped". Then Fred can add "Fred: 55 kills", and eventually, over time, the wiki will collect enough cases (250 for the courier) to be confident in changing a number.