A Statistical analysis of Charm Duration

[charleski]

Ok, I levelled up to 53 and got Boltran's to test against a higher-level mob: Corundium, one of the L50 golems guarding the passage in the Overthere wall. An earlier attempt to use a guard at the East Cabilis gate failed miserably as it seems these are now 'newbie guards' and resist virtually everything. Many thanks to @bcbrown (Lakemist) for his help in acquiring these data (it would have been almost impossible to do solo).

TLDR: Charisma is now has a very significant effect.
Initial cast is disregarded and stats computed solely with regard to charm breaks.
Input data 1:
File: L53 Corundium CHA115.txt
Total trials: 92
p charm success (per tick): 0.7737
Wilson Score lower bound: 0.6609
Wilson Score upper bound: 0.8847
Input data 2:
File: L53 Corundium CHA226.txt
Total trials: 457
p charm success (per tick): 0.9454
Wilson Score lower bound: 0.9176
Wilson Score upper bound: 0.9726

probability difference: 0.1717

Newcombe-Wilson difference interval: -0.1161, 0.1144
Significant at 99% level

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You'll notice that the number of trials is far fewer than in the previous example with the EJ spurbone. This was largely because attempting to keep the mob charmed with a CHA of 115 was almost impossible. A charm was attempted 32 times for each condition (CHA 115 or 226). With CHA 115 the maximum charm length was 10 ticks, and charm frequently broke after only 1 or 2 ticks, meaning we had to keep it rooted while I medded up to cast another expensive (400mana) Boltran's. With CHA226 the maximum charm duration was 60 ticks and I was frequently able to med up to full in between charm breaks.

Another notable feature is that in both conditions I noticed a significant number of resists on the initial cast of charm. There were 13 initial resists with CHA115 and 10 initial resists with CHA226 (out of 32 attempts for each). This difference was not statistically significant, but a lot higher than seen in my previous data set on the EJ Spurbone (2 resists out of 30 attempts at CHA115; 0 resists out of 18 attempts at CHA226).

Clearly some charisma modifier has been switched on when attempting to charm this L50 mob. This was either turned off for the lower-level mobs, or had such a weak effect that its presence was insignificant. For comparison, I plotted the 95% interval ranges for the orc pawn, EJ spurbone and L50 Corundium, all at a CHA of 115. There is obviously a very non-linear effect at play here:
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The question now is whether this is a function of the absolute mob level or the level difference between mob and caster. Since this is a static and repeatable mob, I'll go back and repeat the test when I get to 60, whioch might provide some answer.

I've updated the parsing programs (attached) to accommodate Allure and Boltran's, and also added a boolean switch in each of them which allows you to include the success or failure of the initial charm cast in the statistics. For the purposes of this analysis, this was turned off.